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NCP Football Top 20

Streak One

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Nov 11, 2003
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1. De La Salle (1-1)
2. Folsom (1-0)
3. Liberty (2-0)
4. Valley Christian (1-0)
5. Serra (1-0)
6. Menlo-Atherton (1-0)
7. Cardinal Newman (2-0)
8. St. Francis, Mountain View (0-1)
9. Pittsburg (1-1)
10. Oak Ridge (2-0)
11. Monte Vista (1-0)
12. Wilcox (0-1)
13. St. Mary's, Stockton (0-1)
14. Inderkum (2-0)
15. McClymonds (1-0)
16. Clayton Valley Charter (1-0)
17. Marin Catholic (1-1)
18. Mitty (1-0)
19. Monterey Trail (2-0)
20. Buhach Colony (2-0)

https://norcalpreps.rivals.com/news/ncp-football-top-20-week-3
 
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Liberty a little too high? The Vacaville win was pretty much matched by Oak Ridge (fun fact... the Monticello Empire League is collectively 0-11 to start the year) and Oakdale nearly beat them, but aren't even in the top 20.

Great QB? Yup. Great team? Probably not.

Looks like an up year for the CCS, but a little down for the NCS and SJS.
 
Liberty is a little too high. Not the same team as last year. I would bet a lot on Serra beating them right now. I would flip flop Newman and Oak Ridge. Both excellent teams but I think OR has a little more size and weapons right now. (they should they have 2500+ students) Otherwise good list and its early season.
 
Also, I saw St. Francis play Corona del Mar on Friday. Fairly little team speed on the Lancers. Even less offensive creativity. If they can't move the ball on the ground, they're lost. Run, run, play-action deep pass (they only hit the deep pass once, incidentally)... over and over. Pass to the flat sometimes, but other than that, no intermediate passing game. Even when they were down 3 scored in the early 4th, they kept trying to pound the ball... no confidence to try to air it out. Would be surprised if Oak Ridge couldn't beat them as well as a few others.
 
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I believe teams like Whitney, Central Catholic, Campolindo and Capital Christian should rate higher than Marin Catholic. They really missed the boat with this polling of teams.
 
Def Wilcox at #12 should be above Pitt at #9 based upon their prospective performances. Wilcox in a close fought game against possibly the #1 ranked team in CCS lost due to one big play by VC in 3rd quarter and 3 FG's by the WCAL Kicker of the Year in 2018 incl. a 43-yarder - so the 23-13 score less the 3 FG's is 14-13 - hardly a dominating win.
On the other hand Pitt had a miserable performance against Serra and it could have been even worse. On the first play from scrimmage a Serra WR who was wide open dropped a sure TD pass & there were other opportunities before Serra took its foot off the gas. This was by no means your typical tough Pitt team which speaks volumes of Pitts' "Big Upset" the week prior over St. Mary's-Stockton, which may be a bit over-rated as well in the pre-season. We'll know for sure how good Pitt really is after Serra's game this week vs Menlo-Atherton [who crushed Bellarmine 51-14].
 
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Def Wilcox at #12 should be above Pitt at #9 based upon their prospective performances. Wilcox in a close fought game against possibly the #1 ranked team in CCS lost due to one big play by VC in 3rd quarter and 3 FG's by the WCAL Kicker of the Year in 2018 incl. a 43-yarder - so the 23-13 socre less the 3 FG's is 14-13 - hardly a dominating win.
On the other hand Pitt had a miserable performance against Serra and it could have been even worse. On the first play from scrimmage a Serra WR who was wide open dropped a sure TD pass & there were other opportunities before Serra took its foot off the gas. This was by no means your typical tough Pitt team which speaks volumes of Pitts' "Big Upset" the week prior over St. Mary's-Stockton, which may be a bit over-rated as well in the pre-season. We'll know for sure how good Pitt really is after Serra's game this week vs Menlo-Atherton [who crushed Bellarmine 51-14].

Well, based on history, I can see why Pitt is given a certain amount of benefit of doubt. Keep in mind that the Chargers get their chance at the Pirates in a few weeks, so it will all come out in the wash.
 
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Liberty a little too high?
Liberty is a little too high. Not the same team as last year.

Not only that, if Liberty were indeed really worthy of #3, shouldn't Oakdale then be worthy of a spot somewhere in the top 20 due to the transitive property? The Mustangs looked equally good and easily could have won that game.

Having said that, I concur that Liberty is too high. But if they weren't, Oakdale is getting shortchanged here......
 
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I believe teams like Whitney, Central Catholic, Campolindo and Capital Christian should rate higher than Marin Catholic. They really missed the boat with this polling of teams.

Moving Buhach Colony in because they beat a highly over rated Tracy over all those teams you mentioned as well is a head scratcher. Cap Christian banged BC 55-0 last year in the playoffs.
 
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Not only that, if Liberty were indeed really worthy of #3, shouldn't Oakdale then be worthy of a spot somewhere in the top 20 due to the transitive property? The Mustangs looked equally good and easily could have won that game.

Having said that, I concur that Liberty is too high. But if they weren't, Oakdale is getting shortchanged here......

Yes, I'm very curious to see how their game with Aptos goes this Friday. I was surprised that the Mariners lost to Newport Harbor. It will be an interesting gauge for both teams and regions.
 
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Playing Oakdale at The Corral is a difficult task (see Folsom going there in 2017 for a closer than expected win). Liberty and Oak Ridge had similar results against Vacaville and I thought about moving up Oak Ridge up to #7 based on their play through the first two games. Definite argument to have Oakdale in the Top 20

I will admit I've been more cautious with most early season results. Not saying it is right or wrong, but that is where some of the discrepancies may come up.
 
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Not to attack Cardinal Newman, because they are a quality program, but the seem to be ranked way too high. I think CN is probably in the 15-20 and not 7. Their lines will have some issues with some teams. Just seems CN schedule so far and performance don't look like a team that should be rated so high. There seems to be at least a half a dozen teams in the list that should be higher, and just in NCS...would have Clayton Valley, San Ramon Valley, Monte Vista and possibly Cal High higher. Campolindo could be better. In CCS would also have Mitty higher with just as much talent as CN and a much bigger line. Salinas High in CCS might also be one that should be in ranking at this stage (offense will be very good and one of the top QS in northern CA). Oak Ridge in Sac-SJ and Wilcox (CCS) probably should be higher. Monterey Trail and Buhach Colony in Sac -SJ should be higher. Oakdale might be in the 15-20 range as well and Central Catholic (much tougher schedule) should be in there even though 0-2 and may be a little better than St Mary's. With Oakdale we will see if Liberty game was a one timer or not when they play Aptos and Palma - two very good small school teams. Again, CN schedule and wins don't seem to warrant such a high ranking in my opinion and looks like they were better last year than shown this year. They seem like a team we won't really know how good they are until playoffs.
 
Playing Oakdale at The Corral is a difficult task

Yeah, Parker Chaparral from Colorado also went in there last year and played a tough 8-point game (Oakdale won).

Oh, Chaparral went 1-9 last year? Hmmm...

This is one of those "conventional wisdom" things that I find very silly. Much like the ol' "rivalry game" notion/excuse for a contest being closer than it should be. What, only the underdog can get up for those game? This week, Salinas plays "rival" North Salinas. Look for the Cowboys to annihilate the Vikings by at least 40.

Either you're better than your opponent on that day or you're not.
 
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Well, based on history, I can see why Pitt is given a certain amount of benefit of doubt. Keep in mind that the Chargers get their chance at the Pirates in a few weeks, so it will all come out in the wash.
That will be a fun game to watch. I figured Pitt would start slowly this year, and having lost their entire defensive line from last year is struggling on defense.But they have talent throughout the roster, and I expect them to be better to start BVAL play
 
Not to attack Cardinal Newman, because they are a quality program, but the seem to be ranked way too high. I think CN is probably in the 15-20 and not 7. Their lines will have some issues with some teams. Just seems CN schedule so far and performance don't look like a team that should be rated so high. There seems to be at least a half a dozen teams in the list that should be higher, and just in NCS...would have Clayton Valley, San Ramon Valley, Monte Vista and possibly Cal High higher. Campolindo could be better. In CCS would also have Mitty higher with just as much talent as CN and a much bigger line. Salinas High in CCS might also be one that should be in ranking at this stage (offense will be very good and one of the top QS in northern CA). Oak Ridge in Sac-SJ and Wilcox (CCS) probably should be higher. Monterey Trail and Buhach Colony in Sac -SJ should be higher. Oakdale might be in the 15-20 range as well and Central Catholic (much tougher schedule) should be in there even though 0-2 and may be a little better than St Mary's. With Oakdale we will see if Liberty game was a one timer or not when they play Aptos and Palma - two very good small school teams. Again, CN schedule and wins don't seem to warrant such a high ranking in my opinion and looks like they were better last year than shown this year. They seem like a team we won't really know how good they are until playoffs.
Agree! Central Catholic should be up there and and slightly ahead of St. Mary's. St. Mary's is a young team, lost to Central Catholic last year, and CC's JV beat SM JV last year, as well, although both games were very close last year even though the varsity score says different. St. Mary's defense this year needs much work, especially the secondary! Likewise, the OL/DL for the Rams is young and needs to grow and get better. Although the Rams have good young skill players, they still need to work on execution (sloppy vs Pittsburg), despite scoring 35 points and leading at halftime 21-20. This year's Holy Bowl game is in Central Catholic's favor. But, I will be pulling for the Rams to step up vs starting the season 0-4 again, before going 0-5 with 5th game being against DLS. Imagine a potential 5-5 playoff team. GO RAMS!!!
 
That will be a fun game to watch. I figured Pitt would start slowly this year, and having lost their entire defensive line from last year is struggling on defense.But they have talent throughout the roster, and I expect them to be better to start BVAL play

One would hope that Pitt would be better playing BVAL teams, given that Liberty is the only other BVAL team with a win so far this season. Plus, they have always done well in BVAL play, either winning the league or 2nd place in just about every year I can recall. That said, the defense should get better with more experience and I'm sure the coaching staff has more than enough film of things to work on. If they can get past both non-league opponents BOD and Wilcox (not easy tasks), they shouldn't be tested in their other contests except the big showdown with Liberty on 10/18.
 
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Playing Oakdale at The Corral is a difficult task (see Folsom going there in 2017 for a closer than expected win). Liberty and Oak Ridge had similar results against Vacaville and I thought about moving up Oak Ridge up to #7 based on their play through the first two games. Definite argument to have Oakdale in the Top 20

I will admit I've been more cautious with most early season results. Not saying it is right or wrong, but that is where some of the discrepancies may come up.
What I saw of Liberty & Oak Ridge vs Vacaville. I'd rate Liberty above Oak Ridge. Both teams beat Vacaville on the pass. Oak Ridge's running game and defense isn't on the same level as previous years or what I saw from Liberty the first week. Both teams have premiere QBs.
 
Not to attack Cardinal Newman, because they are a quality program, but the seem to be ranked way too high. I think CN is probably in the 15-20 and not 7. Their lines will have some issues with some teams. Just seems CN schedule so far and performance don't look like a team that should be rated so high. There seems to be at least a half a dozen teams in the list that should be higher, and just in NCS...would have Clayton Valley, San Ramon Valley, Monte Vista and possibly Cal High higher. Campolindo could be better. In CCS would also have Mitty higher with just as much talent as CN and a much bigger line. Salinas High in CCS might also be one that should be in ranking at this stage (offense will be very good and one of the top QS in northern CA). Oak Ridge in Sac-SJ and Wilcox (CCS) probably should be higher. Monterey Trail and Buhach Colony in Sac -SJ should be higher. Oakdale might be in the 15-20 range as well and Central Catholic (much tougher schedule) should be in there even though 0-2 and may be a little better than St Mary's. With Oakdale we will see if Liberty game was a one timer or not when they play Aptos and Palma - two very good small school teams. Again, CN schedule and wins don't seem to warrant such a high ranking in my opinion and looks like they were better last year than shown this year. They seem like a team we won't really know how good they are until playoffs.
Every team CN plays has a bigger line but their line outplays the other teams. Their wins are the same as last year but this year won an away game at Sutter. This year combined 59-7 last year combined 59-6. When you have a QB that has thrown 33 TDs to 3 ints and hasn’t thrown an interception in 12 games it’s because he’s able to read defenses not because he’s big. Throwing 1 TD to 2 Int like Mitty in one game is cause for a long season. Salinas has a similar TD to Int ratio issue. As long as you can be one dimensional and win like the others you listed it works out but I don’t like those odds.
 
Yeah, Parker Chaparral from Colorado also went in there last year and played a tough 8-point game (Oakdale won).

Oh, Chaparral went 1-9 last year? Hmmm...

This is one of those "conventional wisdom" things that I find very silly. Much like the ol' "rivalry game" notion/excuse for a contest being closer than it should be. What, only the underdog can get up for those game? This week, Salinas plays "rival" North Salinas. Look for the Cowboys to annihilate the Vikings by at least 40.

Either you're better than your opponent on that day or you're not.

I get what you're saying and for the most part I agree with you.

However, IMO, there are a few venues where home field and a partisan crowd are worth a few more points (better than the average) to the home team. Oakdale is among those venues.

Since Trent Merzon took over the program in 2000, they are 120-13 (.902) at the Corral.

Obviously it is expected for most teams to have a better record at home than when playing elsewhere. But in the case of Oakdale, the .902 win percentage over that long a period of time (20 seasons) is pretty remarkable. Not sure you'll find too many D3 (and above) programs in the SJS that have fared much better.

In the past 12 years, the only programs to have beaten them at the Corral are Cardinal Newman, Placer, Sierra, Enterprise, Manteca, Folsom, Central Catholic, and now Liberty-Brentwood. Outside of Sierra, those are all marquee programs from their sections.

It typically is a tough place for the visitor to earn a win.

Back in the day, Hooper Stadium up in Grass Valley was just like it. Not only was NU a pretty darn good team year in and year out, but the atmosphere was such that opponents often didn't play their best while the home team consistently played up to their peak and sometimes even over their head. As a D1 program, NU once had a 45 game home win streak, including winning 56 of 57.
 
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Every team CN plays has a bigger line but their line outplays the other teams. Their wins are the same as last year but this year won an away game at Sutter. This year combined 59-7 last year combined 59-6. When you have a QB that has thrown 33 TDs to 3 ints and hasn’t thrown an interception in 12 games it’s because he’s able to read defenses not because he’s big. Throwing 1 TD to 2 Int like Mitty in one game is cause for a long season. Salinas has a similar TD to Int ratio issue. As long as you can be one dimensional and win like the others you listed it works out but I don’t like those odds.

Agree. CN reminds me of the old DLS lines of the 1980’s-1990’s when you had way undersized guys but at end of day they win the line and fundamentally dominate. Pavitt is probably the 2nd best Qb in NorCal behind butterflied. He’s that good. Newman has a tough road game at Placer so we will see how things go. Placer is down but still a tough place to play. I would say OR is better at this stage and would flip flop them but I’m comfortable they are in that 10-12 type range this year. They also play Liberty on the road which is another big time test.
 
I get what you're saying and for the most part I agree with you.

However, IMO, there are a few venues where home field and a partisan crowd are worth a few more points (better than the average) to the home team. Oakdale is among those venues.

Is the field more narrow than a normal field, screwing up opponents' receiver routes? Are there hidden potholes that only Oakdale players know about? Is there a mysterious rope hanging in the endzone, and if you pull on it, does an anvil fall on your head?

If not, it sounds like a normal football field.

Since Trent Merzon took over the program in 2000, they are 120-13 (.902) at the Corral.

What's their away record? I would imagine it's also pretty good.

Obviously it is expected for most teams to have a better record at home than when playing elsewhere.

I would not necessarily expect that. This isn't baseball where there is an inherent advantage of being able to score last. Calpreps initially had a "home field advantage" factor in their predict-the-preps until they determined that it didn't really matter.

Not sure you'll find too many D3 (and above) programs in the SJS that have fared much better.

Prior to the state bowl era, how frequently did Oakdale play teams from out of the section or higher divisions? I know in the CCS, this wasn't especially common. Hell, it took a few years of bowl games to have that finally happen in the CCS.

In the past 12 years, the only programs to have beaten them at the Corral are Cardinal Newman, Placer, Sierra, Enterprise, Manteca, Folsom, Central Catholic, and now Liberty-Brentwood. Outside of Sierra, those are all marquee programs from their sections.

How many premiere programs have they beaten at home in that same time span?

Back in the day, Hooper Stadium up in Grass Valley was just like it. Not only was NU a pretty darn good team year in and year out, but the atmosphere was such that opponents often didn't play their best while the home team consistently played up to their peak and sometimes even over their head. As a D1 program, NU once had a 45 game home win streak, including winning 56 of 57.

That's probably the most important part of that statement.
 
MT and Inderkum are top 5-6 Teams without a question. Not sure how Mitty is on this list, they are not very good.
 
As for this Home Field advantage topic, I feel its different for every school. Back in the day when I played, playing at home just had a different vibe, larger crowd in your stands, the pride of not losing on your turf attitude etc. While playing on the road, the thrill of beating someone on their turf was extremely satisfying, but its still not the same. I still see this in most of the smaller towns with a single high school, especially Oakdale. So if home field does not matter, if Liberty is ranked #3 Oakdale should be no lower than #4.

If calpreps does not account for home field advantage, how does Liberty still have a 50.8 rating and Oakdale have a 9.7? Did Liberty get a porch pass or was that killer win against a 10.2 rated Vacaville weighed that heavily?

As for the larger schools and private schools where transfers are abundant I agree home field might not matter. Seriously, how much pride would a kid have for its schools town if he didn't live there.
 
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Is the field more narrow than a normal field, screwing up opponents' receiver routes? Are there hidden potholes that only Oakdale players know about? Is there a mysterious rope hanging in the endzone, and if you pull on it, does an anvil fall on your head?

If not, it sounds like a normal football field.



What's their away record? I would imagine it's also pretty good.



I would not necessarily expect that. This isn't baseball where there is an inherent advantage of being able to score last. Calpreps initially had a "home field advantage" factor in their predict-the-preps until they determined that it didn't really matter.



Prior to the state bowl era, how frequently did Oakdale play teams from out of the section or higher divisions? I know in the CCS, this wasn't especially common. Hell, it took a few years of bowl games to have that finally happen in the CCS.



How many premiere programs have they beaten at home in that same time span?



That's probably the most important part of that statement.
 
Cal 14, I am a Mustang fan going back to 1960. Family played from 1961 to 1971. Being young then I don’t remember the environment other than it being rich in tradition and hard nosed football. As far as out of area team play I remember St. Francis coming around in early 70s. Years later I met the former coach at a St. Francis function. He told me that playing Oakdale at home was especially tough. In the 90s was when I became more involved as a fan. I remember when Oak Ridge came in ‘96 or so with a very highly state ranked team. We fell behind 21-0. But our crowd kept with the team. After half Oakdale started the usual “wearing down” of The other team and then the fans REALLY got into it, like they so often can. Oakdale won 28-21. Time and time again I see how fanatical we can get. Give us a 4th and 1 goal line stand and we are in heaven.
Just last week on a 4th down inside the 5 I turned around from the 30 yard line and called for help from the fans. As usual they responded in total unity. The Liberty QB still scored with a nice corner endzone pass which shows you things don’t always work out. But I have seen countless times where the electricity the crowd brings HAS had an important impact on defense and sustained rushing drives. Those that have been there in the stands over quite a period of time know this to be true.
 
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Cal 14, I am a Mustang fan going back to 1960. Family played from 1961 to 1971. Being young then I don’t remember the environment other than it being rich in tradition and hard nosed football. As far as out of area team play I remember St. Francis coming around in early 70s. Years later I met the former coach at a St. Francis function. He told me that playing Oakdale at home was especially tough. In the 90s was when I became more involved as a fan. I remember when Oak Ridge came in ‘96 or so with a very highly state ranked team. We fell behind 21-0. But our crowd kept with the team. After half Oakdale started the usual “wearing down” of The other team and then the fans REALLY got into it, like they so often can. Oakdale won 28-21. Time and time again I see how fanatical we can get. Give us a 4th and 1 goal line stand and we are in heaven.
Just last week on a 4th down inside the 5 I turned around from the 30 yard line and called for help from the fans. As usual they responded in total unity. The Liberty QB still scored with a nice corner endzone pass which shows you things don’t always work out. But I have seen countless times where the electricity the crowd brings HAS had an important impact on defense and sustained rushing drives. Those that have been there in the stands over quite a period of time know this to be true.

Ok, so... do Oakdale fans travel well? Do they make noise in road games?

The Mustangs have had a pretty strong program for a long time, certainly since I've been made aware of them. Strong programs win games. Strong programs are tough outs for other strong programs. But, does Oakdale lay down in that game against Oak Ridge if it were on the road? Does this current team get blown out at Liberty? Probably not, but there is no means to confirm it either way.
 
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So if home field does not matter, if Liberty is ranked #3 Oakdale should be no lower than #4.

If calpreps does not account for home field advantage, how does Liberty still have a 50.8 rating and Oakdale have a 9.7? Did Liberty get a porch pass or was that killer win against a 10.2 rated Vacaville weighed that heavily?

The way it's been explained to me is that there is a sliding scale through the first 7 games in which the preseason rating still has weight. Right now, I would theorize that it carries about 72% weight (each game being approximately 1/7th or ~14%). A lot of programs have been getting strangely low initial ratings like Oakdale did this year (my own school, Salinas, has been in the same boat for the last few years... initial rating of around 12, final around 30).

More results like this for the Lions, and their rating will fall. More results like this for Oakdale and it will rise some. Keep in mind that even a 1-point game counts as around 14-15 in Calpreps because they count the overall result heavily. That Oakdale win currently counts as 24.6 for Liberty and 38.5 for Oakdale. After 3 games, I believe the trends start having a larger impact.
 
Liberty is a little too high. Not the same team as last year. I would bet a lot on Serra beating them right now. I would flip flop Newman and Oak Ridge. Both excellent teams but I think OR has a little more size and weapons right now. (they should they have 2500+ students) Otherwise good list and its early season.
Liberty will be just fine in 2 games when they get an injured Akili Calhoun, and projected All Section transfers RB/S Justice Jackson and 6-5 270 OL/DL McNorton become eligible. Unfortunately for Newman
 
The way it's been explained to me is that there is a sliding scale through the first 7 games in which the preseason rating still has weight. Right now, I would theorize that it carries about 72% weight (each game being approximately 1/7th or ~14%). A lot of programs have been getting strangely low initial ratings like Oakdale did this year (my own school, Salinas, has been in the same boat for the last few years... initial rating of around 12, final around 30).

More results like this for the Lions, and their rating will fall. More results like this for Oakdale and it will rise some. Keep in mind that even a 1-point game counts as around 14-15 in Calpreps because they count the overall result heavily. That Oakdale win currently counts as 24.6 for Liberty and 38.5 for Oakdale. After 3 games, I believe the trends start having a larger impact.


I have no problem with calpreps or any other ranking service. Actually it’s probably the best California has for information on finding schedules. I just don’t understand it’s ratings. As the year goes on calpreps is fairly accurate. Except for when Grant beat Poly in the state game years back and it still had Poly rated higher, which was a head scratcher.

I’m with the 70 Mustang though, I was at that OR game in the late 90’s, I believe Fasani was the QB and the second half was all Oakdale with Monge carrying the rock. I sat on the Oak Ridge side because the home stands were full 2 hours before game time. Those Oakdale kids fed off the crowd, it was amazing. And yea if it was at OR they would have lost and if last weeks game was in Brentwood, Liberty wins by 3 scores.
 
Is the field more narrow than a normal field, screwing up opponents' receiver routes? Are there hidden potholes that only Oakdale players know about? Is there a mysterious rope hanging in the endzone, and if you pull on it, does an anvil fall on your head?

If not, it sounds like a normal football field.

You're ignoring the other factors that were pointed out. Also, there's something to familiarity and comfort of surroundings. There's also a travel factor. HS obviously ain't like the collegiate or pro levels where they consistently travel hundreds or thousand of miles, but a long bus ride is still a long bus ride. The football fields and basketball courts in college and the pros are the same size too --- but they also have disparities in home v. away records. Do you dismiss those too?

What's their away record? I would imagine it's also pretty good.

They're 78-37-1 (.677) in away/neutral site games. Pretty good? Absolutely. But not in the same stratosphere as .902.

I would not necessarily expect that. This isn't baseball where there is an inherent advantage of being able to score last

You wouldn't expect it despite it being a statistical fact for pretty much every team sport out there?

Calpreps initially had a "home field advantage" factor in their predict-the-preps until they determined that it didn't really matter.

It didn't matter to THEM. But how does Vegas and sports book betting feel about it? Home field plays a factor in how they set their lines.

For example, Alabama vs. <insert team name here> is almost always going to have a higher spread in Tuscaloosa than when playing the same match up on the road.

When $$ is on the line, Vegas factors in everything. And since it is a statistical fact that home field/court plays a role, it's factored in.


Prior to the state bowl era, how frequently did Oakdale play teams from out of the section or higher divisions? I know in the CCS, this wasn't especially common. Hell, it took a few years of bowl games to have that finally happen in the CCS.

What does that matter? Oakdale, largely a D3/D4 team over that period of time, was still playing teams commensurate to their own size and ability. And they were still clearly better at home than in away/neutral site games.


How many premiere programs have they beaten at home in that same time span?

Depends upon what you consider 'premiere' relative to them. They're obviously not an elite State or National team. They're a D3 power program in the SJS. Borderline D2 nowadays

But, at home, they've beaten the likes of Analy, McClymonds, Whitney, Rancho Cotate, Paraclete, Aptos, Central Catholic, Menlo-Atherton, Inderkum, and Sutter, among other some perennially good SJS programs.


That's probably the most important part of that statement.

Absolutely, Being good is more than half the battle. But it still doesn't change the fact that even good teams tend to perform better in their own backyard than when playing elsewhere.

As good as those NU teams were, they didn't win 45 consecutive games and 56 of 57 away from Hooper Stadium. Why do you think that is? I mean, the fields were the same sizes right? So why were they able to accomplish that feat at home and not on the road??

While NU was 56-1 (.982) at home from 1985 - 1994, they were 45-21-1 (.679) in away/neutral site games over that same time period.

Vast difference, right?

Now, admittedly, there is the playoff factor included in those numbers wherein a team is generally playing tougher opponents -- especially later on -- in many of those neutral site games. So here are the numbers for NU and Oakdale with all playoff games removed.

NU (1985-1994): 47-1 (.979) at home; 35-14-1 (.710) away
Oakdale (2000-2019): 89-12 (.881) at home; 63-20-1 (.756) away

The difference between home and away is noticeable and something you're gonna find for an overwhelming amount of teams.

Now, having conveyed all that, where I agree with you is that home field advantage means far less when one team is vastly superior to another. Obviously a Nat'l elite program such as DLS will win anywhere. DLS would go into The Corral and win 100 out of 100. But they are also a top 25 Nat'l program most every season.

BUT -- when DLS matches up with somewhat equal competition, they are noticeably better at home than in away games. Just like every other team.
  • Of the 9 out-of-state contests they've lost, 6 were on the road.
  • Of the 8 out-of-state contests they've won, 6 were at home.
In closing, I respect your POV -- even though I don't agree with it -- and don't intend any of the above to come across in a negative or condescending manner. If it does, my apology ahead of time.
 
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Ok, so... do Oakdale fans travel well? Do they make noise in road games?

The Mustangs have had a pretty strong program for a long time, certainly since I've been made aware of them. Strong programs win games. Strong programs are tough outs for other strong programs. But, does Oakdale lay down in that game against Oak Ridge if it were on the road? Does this current team get blown out at Liberty? Probably not, but there is no means to confirm it either way.
 
Cal Hi, home field helps. No one should try to argue that UNLESS they just like debating for debating sakes.
 
Cal Hi, home field helps. No one should try to argue that UNLESS they just like debating for debating sakes.

Exactly. It's a documented, statistical fact. For ALL major team sports. There are many factors at play.

Now, elite teams in a given season will often win on the road as much as they win at home. For example, the Golden State Warriors road record last season was only 3 games worse than at home while most other teams have a much larger disparity.

And in the NFL, just research the New England Patriots home record versus the road during the Tom Brady era. They've been tough for any team to beat for much of the past 19 years, but they are statistically much harder to beat at Gillette Stadium than on the road.

That's because HOME field advantage matters. It doesn't always result in a win for the home team, but it often keeps them closer than they otherwise might be and even decides some really tight games due to varying factors.

The above all said, I realize that HS sports are not the same as college or pros. But it still applies to a lesser extent. That's precisely why I started my side of the discussion off by explicitly stating "there are a few venues".

Not all programs have the same advantage as others -- specifically NU and Oakdale. But when all things are equal between teams, home field tends to tip the scales which is precisely why home records are predominantly better than road records. Home field can often be an equalizer when the road team is maybe a little bit better than the home team.
 
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