PAL Tourney Predictions

[Brodiemaster]

Running some PAL Tourney first round scenarios that I thought I'd share:

HMB (1) vs San Mateo(4)

The PAL North title is HMB's to lose, so I'm penciling them in as the 1 seed for the North. Aragon is currently the 4th seed in the south at 5-4, but they have to play Woodside and Hillsdale in two of their last 3 games. San Mateo, with the slightly easier schedule, has a better chance of sneaking into the playoffs, but we'll see.

HMB wins, 64-45

Sequoia(2) vs Westmoor/Jeff(3)

While Sequoia does have a challenge with having to face rivals Woodside and Carlmont in two of its three last games, I foresee them being able to close out both of those games. Assuming that HMB beats Westmoor on Tuesday, that would leave a 7-3 Westmoor and an 8-2 Jefferson meeting on February 10th. Jeff won the first matchup 39-37, but the Rams were missing shots that they should've been making, and I can't imagine them losing at home to their rival and/or shooting that poorly again. Both teams would finish 9-3 in league play, but I have no idea how the tiebreaker would work in this scenario. Regardless, I don't see Jeff or Westmoor beating Sequoia.

Sequoia wins, 74-52

Now on to the other side of the bracket

Menlo-Atherton(1) vs El Camino(4)

MA being the 1 seed is pretty logical to me, so not much to discuss there. El Camino as the North's 4th seed took a bit more consideration, (not that it means anything considering the bottom 4 of the North are quite bad this year) but they have the easiest remaining schedule of the North's potential 4th seed teams.

MA wins, 67-18

Westmoor/Jeff(2) vs Woodside(3)

This will be the most competitive match of the first round, as either Jeff or Westmoor can go toe-to-toe with Woodside (In the preseason, Jeff overcame a 17 point deficit to win 67-65 against Woodside). Home field advantage will be a big factor imo, one that Woodside won't be able to overcome.

Westmoor/Jeff wins 48-43

I'll post my thoughts on the potential semis and finals matchups at a later date.

 

[Highschool hoops fan]

I love the tournament. Have to kind of think its between 3 teams right now. HMB, Sequoia and Menlo-Atherton. I know HMB played Acalanes and won but I'm leaning to the defense of the Bears with the returning MVP point guard.
I say after today they don't lose again till the playoffs.

 

[TurtleLoveCA]

I would be VERY surprised if Menlo-Atherton didn't win this tournament.

http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/Menlo-on-top-after-handling-Sequoia-10908025.php

Someone that occasionally posts on this Forum wrote the M-A Sequoia article, but the Chronicle doesn't credit stringers.

 

[Brodiemaster]

Now that the regular season has wrapped up I'll post some more thoughts/predictions on the upcoming matches.

I originally predicted that HMB would end up playing San Mateo in the first round, but Aragon ended up holding on to its 4th seed in the South. Davion Cox might give HMB some trouble but I still believe that HMB will win relatively comfortably.

I also believed that Westmoor and Jeff would be tied fro second place in the north at 9-3, but Jeff defeated Westmoor 42-35, solidifying their place in 2nd. I'm still confident that Jeff can beat Woodside for the second time this season, but upon consideration, Woodside still has a decent chance to win; coming in 3rd in the south is nothing to scoff at.

Unfortunately, Westmoor is certainly doomed against Sequoia. Sean Orr as good as he is (potential PAL North POTY), won't be able to do it all for his team against a very well-balanced Sequoia squad.

MA vs El Camino was the only prediction that I was spot on with, and obviously, nothing will change in comparison to my last post lol.


For semifinal matchups, I personally believe that Sequoia vs HMB is the more evenly-matched of the two. HMB's Ethan Menzies is the most consistent player on the team imo, but the HMB's success ultimately depends on whether, Treanor, Saffold, Margate or Yerby show up. If not, Lauese, Bene and LeBlanc Jr could definitely overpower them and run away with it.

MA-Jeff already happened this season, with MA prevailing 55-41. I believe that Eric Norton didn't play in the first half, but even with him playing in the second Jeff was still able to compete with them. Since then, I feel like both teams have certainly gotten better. Daniel Benjamin and Rodney Lawrence are definitely the players to look out from Jeff, but MA's stingy defense and balanced attack will prove too much for them.

As for the final, it'll be a great game regardless of what teams make it there, and I think I'd rather wait to see it happen then make speculate about it.

 

[EthanRKassel]

With how well both have them have played lately, I expect an M-A/Sequoia rematch on neutral ground for the final, which would be excellent.

Still, HMB could get in to the final, and I wouldn't count out Westmoor against Sequoia. I don't think Jefferson has what it takes to upset M-A, but they could keep that game close.