I have managed to actually see eight of these teams play in person this year, five of them more than once... So let's see where that gets me...
D5: These are two of the teams I haven't been able to see live... and I really have no clue except that Argonaut won their head-to-head matchup fairly handily, 74-57. Just watched that game on NFHS now... Foul-plagued contest... Argonaut led all the way after a close first quarter, but didn't really put Colfax away til late in the 3rd. That game was held at UOP, but this one appears it will be played at Argonaut's gym, slightly smaller than St. Joe's gym. Advantage Argonaut there, and Colfax will need to be much better with the 3-ball than they have been (announcer on NFHS said something like 60-221 for the year). Still, I think this one should be closer than the last... I'll say Argonaut 68-60.
D4: I've seen both these teams in person, but just can't get a handle on just how good they are... St. Mary's beat Stuart Hall 62-50 at Kezar last month, a game I didn't see. Saw Stuart Hall beat a strong Sacramento team in January, saw St. Mary's lose to De Anza at the Acalanes tourney late late in December. Stuart Hall has higher rankings, but a lower seed (probably due to head-to-head, I guess). I got no clue, really... I'll just guess St. Mary's gets the home win 58-53.
D3: Two more I haven't seen live... I did watch CC's SJS section win over a scrappy Beyer team... If they shoot the 3-ball the way they did in the first quarter of that game, watch out... But I have an idea that Pleasant Valley is the better team overall, and will guess a 59-55 PV win.
D2: Saw Alameda twice in person, a wild overtime loss to De La Salle and a comfy win over St. Joe's. Just saw St. Mary's-Stockton end my Campo Cougars' season a couple days ago. Also took a look just now at the Alameda v. O'Dowd game... And I still have no clue who to pick here. Ranked at #43 and #44 in the state, they can't be any closer.... Looks like they're playing this one in St. Mary's own gym, so I'll give 'em the home-court nod, 65-63.
D1: Paly is consistent and extremely well-coached, with their only "bad loss" being to the then-streaking Mitty (and maybe Menlo, but they got payback the other day). Besides, neither of those losses is *really* all that bad... Las Lomas is faster than fast, and if they can figure out the big-gym shooting thing they'll be tough for anyone to handle. I saw Paly in-person just once, their December win over a strong Los Altos team, and LL at least half a dozen times... Terrific matchup, contrast in styles, all that stuff... Really a tossup game, but I'll go with Paly 68-65.
Open: Yet another great matchup! Saw both of these juggernauts play several times... And I'm still only able to guess. Umm... I'll go with the Dragons due to their being undefeated vs. NorCal teams... Let's go 60-57.