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Final CCS Play-off Projections After Week 10 - Aptos opts up

Question, is it possible for an Open qualifier team (either AQ or At-Large) to opt out of participating in Open and instead participate in Non-Open? For example, what if Santa Teresa wanted to opt out of Open. I have no reason to pick Santa Teresa other than they are a lower seed in D1
An open qualifier can't opt to go to a non-open division - the only teams with any choice in whether they are in an open or non-open division are the winners of the Santa Cruz Coast League and the Mission Trail League with an option to opt up. The logic for this was that these are the only two non-A league teams that aren't part of a super league (that has more than one division and moves teams between their leagues) and don't have an ability over time to move into an A league where they could compete in an open division. The logic has some flaws, but that is where it sits today.
 
the CCS playoff brackets are a joke... We were just talking about this on another thread. They need to just simplify it and make Four to Five 16 Team Brackets...The CCS playoff brackets are so watered down it makes me laugh... There is no reason Valley Chrisitian, Milpitas, Bellarmine, St Francis, Serra, San Benito should not be in the same bracket for the CCS.. They spread these teams out into these watered down 8 team brackets and everyone gets a section title... the SJS and the PAC-5 do it right. The best play the Best in 16 team brackets. Do not get me wrong the SJS has its flaws too, allowing D-1 caliber teams to participate in D-2 bracket which I dont think is fair either, but the CCS .... ya its a joke.
 
Leopold, outstanding insight on CCS. I agree with you, they should qualify 64 or 80 teams of the 91 teams in the section. I am so tired of high school sections, like the CCS with "watered down" playoffs.
 
the CCS playoff brackets are a joke... We were just talking about this on another thread. They need to just simplify it and make Four to Five 16 Team Brackets...The CCS playoff brackets are so watered down it makes me laugh... There is no reason Valley Chrisitian, Milpitas, Bellarmine, St Francis, Serra, San Benito should not be in the same bracket for the CCS.. They spread these teams out into these watered down 8 team brackets and everyone gets a section title... the SJS and the PAC-5 do it right. The best play the Best in 16 team brackets. Do not get me wrong the SJS has its flaws too, allowing D-1 caliber teams to participate in D-2 bracket which I dont think is fair either, but the CCS .... ya its a joke.

While it does look a bit silly now, at the time they made this switch it was very needed. Remember, the CIF State games had Open and Div 1-4 games. The CCS had a single Open division, that required anyone who would win to be in Div 1 regardless of the size of their school. The CCS open for years screwed over some great smaller schools - think VC, Palma, SHP from moving to state games, which is why they came up with this current system. With the new 13 CA bowl games, the CCS system looks silly with 3 Opens, but it is no worse than any other section coming up with bowl eligible teams. Until the CIF bowl games become some sort of true playoff system, no reason for CCS or any other section to "fix" their system.
 
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HUGE blow to the Padres. Pretty sure they were going to opt up to the Open as long as they were healthy. Doubt that happens now.
Always hate to hear about teams being diminished through injury as it always fun to see how teams match up at their best in the play-offs. Interesting to hear that Carmel was going to opt up. Through eight games with their star RB they were still only the 4th ranked team in the non-open division V according to Calpreps (Aptos is #12, Half Moon Bay #14, Menlo #16, Carmel #17 and Kings Academy #19 and Scotts Valley who they nipped in OT #26) This non-open division is much stronger than the non-open division 4 with larger schools where the top ranked team is #30 Los Altos. Interesting that 5 of the sections top 20 teams and many of its stronger smaller schools could end up in the non-open division V.

DIII in the open is more top heavy (currently projecting #1 Valley Christian - who could be bumped up to Division II if both Aptos and Carmel opt up, #6 Palma, #15 Saint Ignatius - who may not get in, #18 Monte Vista Christian, #23 Live Oak, #24 Burlingame, and #25 Saratoga - but the middle and bottom is not much different between the open and non-open divisions.
 
Always hate to hear about teams being diminished through injury as it always fun to see how teams match up at their best in the play-offs. Interesting to hear that Carmel was going to opt up. Through eight games with their star RB they were still only the 4th ranked team in the non-open division V according to Calpreps (Aptos is #12, Half Moon Bay #14, Menlo #16, Carmel #17 and Kings Academy #19 and Scotts Valley who they nipped in OT #26) This non-open division is much stronger than the non-open division 4 with larger schools where the top ranked team is #30 Los Altos. Interesting that 5 of the sections top 20 teams and many of its stronger smaller schools could end up in the non-open division V.

DIII in the open is more top heavy (currently projecting #1 Valley Christian - who could be bumped up to Division II if both Aptos and Carmel opt up, #6 Palma, #15 Saint Ignatius - who may not get in, #18 Monte Vista Christian, #23 Live Oak, #24 Burlingame, and #25 Saratoga - but the middle and bottom is not much different between the open and non-open divisions.


I'm guessing Carmel figured they would rather test themselves by moving up and would rather lose a 1st Rd game in the open than try for a non bowl game ccs title. However my understanding is it would have come down to health of the team. Now, who knows what happens. Maybe they catch lightning in a bottle get hot at the right time and still test the waters of the open. But the shoe game vs pg just got more interesting with this injury.
 
While it does look a bit silly now, at the time they made this switch it was very needed. Remember, the CIF State games had Open and Div 1-4 games. The CCS had a single Open division, that required anyone who would win to be in Div 1 regardless of the size of their school. The CCS open for years screwed over some great smaller schools - think VC, Palma, SHP from moving to state games, which is why they came up with this current system. With the new 13 CA bowl games, the CCS system looks silly with 3 Opens, but it is no worse than any other section coming up with bowl eligible teams. Until the CIF bowl games become some sort of true playoff system, no reason for CCS or any other section to "fix" their system.

I was referring to the non-open playoff games. They are the "every kid get a trophy" games. What is the point of those games?
 
The "every kid gets a trophy" comment is totally inaccurate. The lower division teams play a different brand of football than the "big boys" in CCS. Should the Willamettes and Humboldt States of the world play Florida State in the NCAA playoffs? Before these changes were made, the CCS playoff structure allowed those sort of match-ups to occur.
The current system rewards the A-League teams with a ton of playoff spots/chance to move on to the bowl games, and also gives the B/C League teams a playoff consisent to how the leagues are divided (although I would agree that two divisions is a bit excessive, as one division would get all the league champions into an 8 team bracket).
 
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I don't mind the non-open division formats at all. There is a wide scope of high school football being played, so one set of rules doesn't work well. I would like to see sections have one 8 team or 16 team open bracket and the finalists move onto NorCal/State competition. If they want more divisions played just for sections, no harm no foul to me.
 
I just feel like allowing so many teams into these playoffs is getting out of hand. to get to the playoffs it has to be EARNED. I was not ok with even Del Oro getting a playoff berth at 4-6 last year even if they did win a state title. seeing 4-6 and 5-5 teams in playoffs to me is just ridiculous. I remember when I played making the playoffs was a challenge. We had to win AT LEAST 7 games. and i hate to say it but i think they expanded the playoffs for the " $$$$$" more teams= more games = more ticket sales. It is always about they $.
 
CCS play format is fine. For years they were penalized for an Open division in the previous state format. Now the enrollment based open divisions fit the state format as it is. From each division the representative teams should be competitive in the regionals and the section playoffs should be competitive at least at the top and no leass than other sections. The non-bowl division playoffs should be relatively competitive as well. It fits lots of goals....top teams in their enrollments will represent in a regional aotentially state game and section should be relatively competitive. The way the state playoffs are now, there is little to say negative about it.
 
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CCS 2016 Play-off Picture post Week 9 (Friday night)

Going into the last week 21 of the 24 spots in the open division are spoken for and in the non-open division 9 of the 16 spots are locked up.

Open Division Leagues

DeAnza League – Los Gatos has clinched a solo league title with their win over Wilcox. Milpitas and Wilcox have also clinched automatic berths. The last automatic spot goes to Mountain View if they beat Palo Alto. Palo Alto gets the spot if they beat Mountain View and Los Gatos beats Saratoga. Saratoga gets the fourth spot if they beat Los Gatos and Palo Alto beats Mountain View. Saratoga has clinched an at-large berth if they don’t get the last automatic spot. Mt. View with a loss and Palo Alto with a win would be bubble teams for at-large berths if they do not get an automatic berth.

Gabilan League – All four automatic berths are locked up for San Bento, Palma, Monte Vista Christian and Salinas. The Palma and San Benito game will determine the league championship and have an impact on their non-league opponents (St. Francis, Aptos, Palo Alto, Wilcox and Los Gatos) final CCS points. Alvarez has a chance to end up at 19 points and on the at-large bubble with a win over North Salinas and if Elk Grove beats Sheldon.

Mt. Hamilton – All four automatic berths are also in place here with Oak Grove, Leigh, Live Oak and Piedmont Hills. Santa Teresa has locked up an at-large berth. Oak Grove wins the league outright with either a win over Piedmont Hills or a Leigh loss to Santa Teresa.

PAL-Bay – Menlo-Atherton is the outright league champion and Burlingame and Aragon have gained automatic berths. The last PAL spot goes to Hillsdale if they beat Aragon. If Hillsdale losses SHP gains the fourth spot. If SHP beats Menlo and McLymonds beats Oakland Tech they could end up at 19 points and in contention for a final at-large spot (they would lose a tie-breaker to Mountain View based on result with Hillsdale as a common opponent).

WCAL – The four automatic berths are locked up with Valley Christian, St. Francis, Serra, and Bellarmine. Valley Christian raps up the outright league championship with a win over Sacred Heart Cathedral. Mitty has clinched an at-large berth. SI can gain an at-large berth with a win over St. Francis or with a Campolindo upset over Clayton Valley Charter in week 10. A win by Marin Catholic in week 10 will give SI 19 points and put them on the bubble.

At-Large Berths – Top two teams have qualified regardless of week 10 results.

1. Santa Teresa 6-3 21 points (projected 6-4 +2 points if they beat Leigh)
2. Saratoga 5-4 20.5 points (projected 5-5 +2 points if they beat Los Gatos)

Mitty gets the third at-large spot with an Aptos win over San Lorenzo Valley or a win over Riordan

3. Mitty 4-5 18.83 points (projected at 5-5 21.5 +2 for beating Riordan, +0.67 if Aptos beats SLV).

Teams in contention for the final at-large spot


Mountain View 5-4 19 points. If they lose in week 10 5-5 19 points (projected to get an automatic spot)

St. Ignatius 4-5 18.5 points (+2 for beating St. Francis + 1 if Campolindo beats Clayton Valley + 0.5 if Marin Catholic beats Justin-Sienna) projected at 4-6 19 points.
Alvarez 3-6 16.5 points (+2 for beating North Salinas, +0.5 if Elk Grove beats Sheldon). Projected 17 points.
Palo Alto* 3-6 16.5 points (+2 for beating Mt. View, +1 If San Benito beats Palma, +0.5 if Oak Grove beats Piedmont Hills or Santa Teresa beats Leigh). Projected 18 points.
Sacred Heart Prep** 2-7 16 points (+2 for beating Menlo, +1 if McLymonds beats Oakland Tech) – can’t win tiebreaker against Mountain View (Hillsdale) or Saint Ignatius (Riordan) due to worst record against common opponent . Projected 17 points.
· Only if Both Saratoga and Palo Alto win and Saratoga gets AQ.
** Only if Hillsdale wins AQ

Opt-ups – The two teams with an ability to opt into the open will be Aptos (projected 8-2) and Carmel (projected 10-0). Aptos is currently playing without their starting QB and it is unknown if he will return for the play-offs and Carmel lost their 1,000 yard rusher in week 8 for the season. In the event that one team opts up it is likely that Sacred Heart Prep (or Hillsdale if they were to replace SHP as the Bay automatic qualifier) would be the team pushed down into the non-open division. If both teams opt up the second team to be pushed down under the current scenario would be SI. The net-net of this is that it looks almost certain that Valley Christian will be in DIII this year even if teams opt up.

Projection of Open Play-off field - changes from last week noted in parentheses

Division I

1. San Benito 2899 10-0 33.5
2. Menlo-Atherton 2279 8-2 30
3. Milpitas 3149 8-2 26.5
4. Bellarmine 3200 7-3 25.5
5. Piedmont Hills 2208 6-4 22.5
6. Wilcox 1994 5-5 21.83 (-0.67 for VC being tri-champion, -0.5 for Monterey Trail being a B opponent)
7. Salinas 2675 5-5 21
8. Santa Teresa 2303 6-4 21

Division II

1. St. Francis 1757 9-1 30 (+2 for beating VC, +0.5 for being league tri-champ)
2. Los Gatos 1971 7-3 29.5
3. Oak Grove 1896 8-2 27.83 (+.033 for Saint Francis being league tri-champ)
4. Leigh 1674 8-2 27
5. Serra 1758 6-4 24.5 (+2 projected to beat Bellarmine, +0.5 for being league tri champ, -1 for Pittsburg loss)
6. Aragon 1521 7-3 23 (+2 beat Burlingame)
7. Mitty 1727 5-5 21.5 (-1 for Pittsburg loss)
8. Mountain View 1845 6-4 21


Division III

1. Valley Christian 1512 9-1 30 (-2 for loss to St. Francis, -1 for being league tri-champ, +0.5 for Pleasant Valley being co-champion)
2. Palma 890 7-3 26.83 (+0.33 for St. Francis being tri-champ)
3. Live Oak 1096 8-2 26
4. Monte Vista Christian 900 8-2 25
5. Burlingame 1385 6-4 22 (-2 lost to Aragon)
6. Saratoga 1305 5-5 20.5
7. Saint Ignatius 1467 4-6 19
8. Sacred Heart Prep 615 2-8 17


Non open Divisions

El Camino – Even with the Cupertino loss to Fremont Friday the game between Cupertino and Homestead will determine league championship and automatic berth. Los Altos will get an at-large spot with 20 points with a win vs last place Gunn.

Mission Trail – The automatic berths have been clinched by Carmel and Soledad. A Carmel win this week or a Soledad loss makes Carmel the sole league champion. Pacific Grove is sitting with 17 points and can add 2 points and make the play-offs by upsetting Carmel. Stevenson ends at 18.42 with a win over Marina which will leave them on the bubble currently projected as last team in.

Pacific - Seaside clinched the league’s automatic spot. A Seaside win or Gilroy lose makes them sole champion. Gilroy has 19 points and will get to 21 if they win as favored against North Monterey County.

PAL Ocean – League play is over and HMB got the automatic berth as co-champion with Menlo. Menlo sits at 22.5 points (24.5 if they beat SHP) has clinched an at-large berth and Kings Academy sits at 17.5 points (19.5 if they beat Jefferson) gets an at –large berth with a win. Woodside 17.5 points (must beat Menlo-Atherton +2) to get an at-large berth. Sequoia sits at 16 points and must beat Carlmont and have Rancho Cotate upset Cardinal Newman to get to 19 points and an at-large berth.

PAL Lake – San Mateo clinched the leagues automatic berth as sole champion.

Santa Cruz Coast League – Even though a San Lorenzo Valley upset over Aptos would create a three way tie for the league championship the automatic berths would still go to Aptos and Scotts Valley. SLV sits at 17.5 points and would gain 2.33 points by beating Aptos and 0.5 for Homestead beating Cupertino which would give them an at-large berth.

Santa Teresa – Two games with both play-off and league championship consequences. The winner of the Westmont and Branham game gets the leagues automatic berth. Westmont wins the league outright if they beat Branham. Westmont already has enough points (22) for an at-large berth if they do not get the automatic spot.

Branham is sitting with 18 points and picks up 2.33 points with a win over Westmont and 0.5 point if Cupertino beats Homestead.

Silver Creek is sitting with 16.5 points and could gain 2 points with a win over independence.

Independence is sitting with 17.5 points and would get 2 points with a win over Silver Creek and 0.33 points if Gunderson beats Overfelt.

West Valley – Despite Del Mar’s upset of Gunderson this week, the winner of this week’s Gunderson and Overfelt game will determine the league champion. If Overfelt wins they are the sole league champion. IF Gunderson wins they win the tie breaker as tri-champions with Del Mar and Overfelt

Automatic Qualifiers: Carmel, Soledad, Aptos, Scotts Valley, Seaside, Half Moon Bay, San Mateo

Automatic Qualifiers to be determined: either Cupertino or Homestead, Westmont or Branham, Gunderson or Overfelt

At-Large :
1. Menlo 22.5
2. Westmont (if not AQ) 22
3. Gilroy 19
4. Los Altos 18
5. Branham 18
6. Independence 17.5
7. Kings Academy 17.5
8. Woodside 17.5
9. Pacific Grove 17
10. Silver Creek 16.5
11. Stevenson 16.41
12. Sequoia 16


Non Open Division I

1. Aptos 1411 8-2 26.5
2. Westmont 1541 9-1 24.5
3. Soledad 1431 7-3 21.5
4. Gilroy 1496 7-3 21
5. Homestead 2367 8-2 20.5
6. Los Altos 2200 8-2 20
7. Silver Creek 2532 6-4 18.5 (-2 for loss to San Jose)
8. San Mateo 1682 7-3 18.5


Division II

1. Carmel 869 10-0 28
2. Half Moon Bay 997 9-1 25
3. Seaside 1054 9-1 25
4. Menlo 577 9-1 24.5
5. Scotts Valley 841 7-3 21.5
6. Kings Academy 577 7-3 19.5 (-2 for loss to Sequoia)
7. Gunderson 1146 8-2 19.17 (-2 for loss to Del Mar, -0.33 for being league co-champion)
8. Stevenson 498 6-3 18.41

Bubble Teams:

Independence 3104 6-4 17.83 (-.67 for Gunderson loss to Del Mar)
Branham 1512 6-4 18 (+0.5 if Cupertino upsets Homestead)
Woodside 1772 5-5 17.5
Pacific Grove 613 5-5 17
Sequoia 2113 5-5 16
 
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CCS play format is fine. For years they were penalized for an Open division in the previous state format. Now the enrollment based open divisions fit the state format as it is. From each division the representative teams should be competitive in the regionals and the section playoffs should be competitive at least at the top and no leass than other sections. The non-bowl division playoffs should be relatively competitive as well. It fits lots of goals....top teams in their enrollments will represent in a regional aotentially state game and section should be relatively competitive. The way the state playoffs are now, there is little to say negative about it.
NorCal I would agree with you EXCEPT for the fact that the CCS three Open Divisions send five teams to the state play-offs. Why not just the three Open winners? Why five of the six first/second place teams? Why not all six of the first/second place Open teams? The answer is that CCS used to have 5 play-off divisions therefore CCS had 5 slots to get into the CIF play-offs. Thing is that it would have been just as "fair" for CIF to say "only section winners can be in the play-offs" instead of saying that in the case of CCS "you can have your three winners PLUS two of your second place teams." My problem with the CCS play-off format is that two of the three second place Open division winners get into the CIF play-offs. So in pretty much every other section in the state only their winning team gets into the play-offs but the depth of CCS is so great that second place teams should go to the state play-offs also. Is that what CCS is telling the state?
 
There are so many state titles now it has become almost meaningless. Not quite, but almost. Way back at the dawn of time early in the 20th century when CIF created a state tournament for football, only league champions were eligible. There was just one tournament. One champion. One clear top dog in California. Now, well, its almost AYSO for football.
 
the CCS playoff brackets are a joke... We were just talking about this on another thread. They need to just simplify it and make Four to Five 16 Team Brackets...The CCS playoff brackets are so watered down it makes me laugh... There is no reason Valley Chrisitian, Milpitas, Bellarmine, St Francis, Serra, San Benito should not be in the same bracket for the CCS.. They spread these teams out into these watered down 8 team brackets and everyone gets a section title... the SJS and the PAC-5 do it right. The best play the Best in 16 team brackets. Do not get me wrong the SJS has its flaws too, allowing D-1 caliber teams to participate in D-2 bracket which I dont think is fair either, but the CCS .... ya its a joke.

So the CCS currently lets 40 teams in to their playoffs spread over 5 divisions... your genius solution to make the playoffs LESS watered down is to let 64-80 teams in? Because having 80 out of 90 or so schools in the CCS make the playoffs wouldn't be watered down at all right?
 
NorCal I would agree with you EXCEPT for the fact that the CCS three Open Divisions send five teams to the state play-offs. Why not just the three Open winners? Why five of the six first/second place teams? Why not all six of the first/second place Open teams? The answer is that CCS used to have 5 play-off divisions therefore CCS had 5 slots to get into the CIF play-offs. Thing is that it would have been just as "fair" for CIF to say "only section winners can be in the play-offs" instead of saying that in the case of CCS "you can have your three winners PLUS two of your second place teams." My problem with the CCS play-off format is that two of the three second place Open division winners get into the CIF play-offs. So in pretty much every other section in the state only their winning team gets into the play-offs but the depth of CCS is so great that second place teams should go to the state play-offs also. Is that what CCS is telling the state?

I think you will get the same teams pretty much anyways under either format although less will be made than if 5 teams come from one playoff. There will most likely be at least 3 WCAL teams (potentially 4) and 1 or two other top teams. 2 teams from D2 will most likely be WCAL, if VC stays in D3 they have a shot at winning or in finals and making it. D1 is probably weakest divivon and another WCAL team is favored although seeding doesn't say so and maybe a non-WCAL. If San Benito gest in the finals and defeats Palma this Friday they will have a shot. The question will be where the 5th team comes from - D1 or D3. CCS gets only 5 teams in state as it is. I believe CCS only gets 5 teams in the state play-in under all circumstances, but I may be wrong.
 
I think you will get the same teams pretty much anyways under either format although less will be made than if 5 teams come from one playoff. There will most likely be at least 3 WCAL teams (potentially 4) and 1 or two other top teams. 2 teams from D2 will most likely be WCAL, if VC stays in D3 they have a shot at winning or in finals and making it. D1 is probably weakest divivon and another WCAL team is favored although seeding doesn't say so and maybe a non-WCAL. If San Benito gest in the finals and defeats Palma this Friday they will have a shot. The question will be where the 5th team comes from - D1 or D3. CCS gets only 5 teams in state as it is. I believe CCS only gets 5 teams in the state play-in under all circumstances, but I may be wrong.

That was also the common wisdom last year at the start of the playoffs. The results were quite different. It ended up Bells, Milpitas, Oak Grove, St. Francis, SHP. Wouldn't be surprised at all if there were only 2 WCAL teams again going to NorCals.
 
I think you will get the same teams pretty much anyways under either format although less will be made than if 5 teams come from one playoff. There will most likely be at least 3 WCAL teams (potentially 4) and 1 or two other top teams. 2 teams from D2 will most likely be WCAL, if VC stays in D3 they have a shot at winning or in finals and making it. D1 is probably weakest divivon and another WCAL team is favored although seeding doesn't say so and maybe a non-WCAL. If San Benito gest in the finals and defeats Palma this Friday they will have a shot. The question will be where the 5th team comes from - D1 or D3. CCS gets only 5 teams in state as it is. I believe CCS only gets 5 teams in the state play-in under all circumstances, but I may be wrong.

The CCS gets to advance five teams to the regional Nor Play-offs. It is the winner of the three open divisions and then two of the three runner-ups based on the criteria below.

It very well could be that games between top teams in the WCAL, Palma Vs St. Francis, etc. or the winner of the Palma-San Benito this week will end up determining which runner-up teams advance as the first tie breaking criteria is head to head.

Below is the language copied from the CCS website.
  1. Whenever the CIF allows for non-section champions to advance to these CIF regional and state bowl games, CCS teams from the CCS Open Division shall be entered in accordance with the following:
    1. The champions of each of the three (3) brackets from the CCS Open Division will be automatically advanced to the CIF Bowl Game Selection Committee for consideration.

    2. Two of the three runner-ups of each of the three (3) brackets from the CCS Open Division will be automatically advanced to the CIF Bowl Game Selection Committee for consideration based on the following criteria, in rank order:
a Head to Head competition results; if none or a tie, NEXT

  1. Competition results among common opponents; if none or a draw, NEXT

  2. CCS Football Seeding/At-Large Selection Points; if a tie THEN

  3. Coin flip.
 
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CCS 2016 Play-off Picture post Week 9 (Friday night)

Going into the last week 21 of the 24 spots in the open division are spoken for and in the non-open division 9 of the 16 spots are locked up.

Open Division Leagues

DeAnza League – Los Gatos has clinched a solo league title with their win over Wilcox. Milpitas and Wilcox have also clinched automatic berths. The last automatic spot goes to Mountain View if they beat Palo Alto. Palo Alto gets the spot if they beat Mountain View and Los Gatos beats Saratoga. Saratoga gets the fourth spot if they beat Los Gatos and Palo Alto beats Mountain View. Saratoga has clinched an at-large berth if they don’t get the last automatic spot. Mt. View with a loss and Palo Alto with a win would be bubble teams for at-large berths if they do not get an automatic berth.

Gabilan League – All four automatic berths are locked up for San Bento, Palma, Monte Vista Christian and Salinas. The Palma and San Benito game will determine the league championship and have an impact on their non-league opponents (St. Francis, Aptos, Palo Alto, Wilcox and Los Gatos) final CCS points. Alvarez has a chance to end up at 19 points and on the at-large bubble with a win over North Salinas and if Elk Grove beats Sheldon.

Mt. Hamilton – All four automatic berths are also in place here with Oak Grove, Leigh, Live Oak and Piedmont Hills. Santa Teresa has locked up an at-large berth. Oak Grove wins the league outright with either a win over Piedmont Hills or a Leigh loss to Santa Teresa.

PAL-Bay – Menlo-Atherton is the outright league champion and Burlingame and Aragon have gained automatic berths. The last PAL spot goes to Hillsdale if they beat Aragon. If Hillsdale losses SHP gains the fourth spot. If SHP beats Menlo and McLymonds beats Oakland Tech they could end up at 19 points and in contention for a final at-large spot (they would lose a tie-breaker to Mountain View based on result with Hillsdale as a common opponent).

WCAL – The four automatic berths are locked up with Valley Christian, St. Francis, Serra, and Bellarmine. Valley Christian raps up the outright league championship with a win over Sacred Heart Cathedral. Mitty has clinched an at-large berth. SI can gain an at-large berth with a win over St. Francis or with a Campolindo upset over Clayton Valley Charter in week 10. A win by Marin Catholic in week 10 will give SI 19 points and put them on the bubble.

At-Large Berths – Top two teams have qualified regardless of week 10 results.

1. Santa Teresa 6-3 21 points (projected 6-4 +2 points if they beat Leigh)
2. Saratoga 5-4 20.5 points (projected 5-5 +2 points if they beat Los Gatos)

Mitty gets the third at-large spot with an Aptos win over San Lorenzo Valley or a win over Riordan

3. Mitty 4-5 18.83 points (projected at 5-5 21.5 +2 for beating Riordan, +0.67 if Aptos beats SLV).

Teams in contention for the final at-large spot


Mountain View 5-4 19 points. If they lose in week 10 5-5 19 points (projected to get an automatic spot)

St. Ignatius 4-5 18.5 points (+2 for beating St. Francis + 1 if Campolindo beats Clayton Valley + 0.5 if Marin Catholic beats Justin-Sienna) projected at 4-6 19 points.
Alvarez 3-6 16.5 points (+2 for beating North Salinas, +0.5 if Elk Grove beats Sheldon). Projected 17 points.
Palo Alto* 3-6 16.5 points (+2 for beating Mt. View, +1 If San Benito beats Palma, +0.5 if Oak Grove beats Piedmont Hills or Santa Teresa beats Leigh). Projected 18 points.
Sacred Heart Prep** 2-7 16 points (+2 for beating Menlo, +1 if McLymonds beats Oakland Tech) – can’t win tiebreaker against Mountain View (Hillsdale) or Saint Ignatius (Riordan) due to worst record against common opponent . Projected 17 points.
· Only if Both Saratoga and Palo Alto win and Saratoga gets AQ.
** Only if Hillsdale wins AQ

Opt-ups – The two teams with an ability to opt into the open will be Aptos (projected 8-2) and Carmel (projected 10-0). Aptos is currently playing without their starting QB and it is unknown if he will return for the play-offs and Carmel lost their 1,000 yard rusher in week 8 for the season. In the event that one team opts up it is likely that Sacred Heart Prep (or Hillsdale if they were to replace SHP as the Bay automatic qualifier) would be the team pushed down into the non-open division. If both teams opt up the second team to be pushed down under the current scenario would be SI. The net-net of this is that it looks almost certain that Valley Christian will be in DIII this year even if teams opt up.

Projection of Open Play-off field - changes from last week noted in parentheses

Division I

1. San Benito 2899 10-0 33.5
2. Menlo-Atherton 2279 8-2 30
3. Milpitas 3149 8-2 26.5
4. Bellarmine 3200 7-3 25.5
5. Piedmont Hills 2208 6-4 22.5
6. Wilcox 1994 5-5 21.83 (-0.67 for VC being tri-champion, -0.5 for Monterey Trail being a B opponent)
7. Salinas 2675 5-5 21
8. Santa Teresa 2303 6-4 21

Division II

1. St. Francis 1757 9-1 30 (+2 for beating VC, +0.5 for being league tri-champ)
2. Los Gatos 1971 7-3 29.5
3. Oak Grove 1896 8-2 27.83 (+.033 for Saint Francis being league tri-champ)
4. Leigh 1674 8-2 27
5. Serra 1758 6-4 24.5 (+2 projected to beat Bellarmine, +0.5 for being league tri champ, -1 for Pittsburg loss)
6. Aragon 1521 7-3 23 (+2 beat Burlingame)
7. Mitty 1727 5-5 21.5 (-1 for Pittsburg loss)
8. Mountain View 1845 6-4 21


Division III

1. Valley Christian 1512 9-1 30 (-2 for loss to St. Francis, -1 for being league tri-champ, +0.5 for Pleasant Valley being co-champion)
2. Palma 890 7-3 26.83 (+0.33 for St. Francis being tri-champ)
3. Live Oak 1096 8-2 26
4. Monte Vista Christian 900 8-2 25
5. Burlingame 1385 6-4 22 (-2 lost to Aragon)
6. Saratoga 1305 5-5 20.5
7. Saint Ignatius 1467 4-6 19
8. Sacred Heart Prep 615 2-8 17


Non open Divisions

El Camino – Even with the Cupertino loss to Fremont Friday the game between Cupertino and Homestead will determine league championship and automatic berth. Los Altos will get an at-large spot with 20 points with a win vs last place Gunn.

Mission Trail – The automatic berths have been clinched by Carmel and Soledad. A Carmel win this week or a Soledad loss makes Carmel the sole league champion. Pacific Grove is sitting with 17 points and can add 2 points and make the play-offs by upsetting Carmel. Stevenson ends at 18.42 with a win over Marina which will leave them on the bubble currently projected as last team in.

Pacific - Seaside clinched the league’s automatic spot. A Seaside win or Gilroy lose makes them sole champion. Gilroy has 19 points and will get to 21 if they win as favored against North Monterey County.

PAL Ocean – League play is over and HMB got the automatic berth as co-champion with Menlo. Menlo sits at 22.5 points (24.5 if they beat SHP) has clinched an at-large berth and Kings Academy sits at 17.5 points (19.5 if they beat Jefferson) gets an at –large berth with a win. Woodside 17.5 points (must beat Menlo-Atherton +2) to get an at-large berth. Sequoia sits at 16 points and must beat Carlmont and have Rancho Cotate upset Cardinal Newman to get to 19 points and an at-large berth.

PAL Lake – San Mateo clinched the leagues automatic berth as sole champion.

Santa Cruz Coast League – Even though a San Lorenzo Valley upset over Aptos would create a three way tie for the league championship the automatic berths would still go to Aptos and Scotts Valley. SLV sits at 17.5 points and would gain 2.33 points by beating Aptos and 0.5 for Homestead beating Cupertino which would give them an at-large berth.

Santa Teresa – Two games with both play-off and league championship consequences. The winner of the Westmont and Branham game gets the leagues automatic berth. Westmont wins the league outright if they beat Branham. Westmont already has enough points (22) for an at-large berth if they do not get the automatic spot.

Branham is sitting with 18 points and picks up 2.33 points with a win over Westmont and 0.5 point if Cupertino beats Homestead.

Silver Creek is sitting with 16.5 points and could gain 2 points with a win over independence.

Independence is sitting with 17.5 points and would get 2 points with a win over Silver Creek and 0.33 points if Gunderson beats Overfelt.

West Valley – Despite Del Mar’s upset of Gunderson this week, the winner of this week’s Gunderson and Overfelt game will determine the league champion. If Overfelt wins they are the sole league champion. IF Gunderson wins they win the tie breaker as tri-champions with Del Mar and Overfelt

Automatic Qualifiers: Carmel, Soledad, Aptos, Scotts Valley, Seaside, Half Moon Bay, San Mateo

Automatic Qualifiers to be determined: either Cupertino or Homestead, Westmont or Branham, Gunderson or Overfelt

At-Large :
1. Menlo 22.5
2. Westmont (if not AQ) 22
3. Gilroy 19
4. Los Altos 18
5. Branham 18
6. Independence 17.5
7. Kings Academy 17.5
8. Woodside 17.5
9. Pacific Grove 17
10. Silver Creek 16.5
11. Stevenson 16.41
12. Sequoia 16


Non Open Division I

1. Aptos 1411 8-2 26.5
2. Westmont 1541 9-1 24.5
3. Soledad 1431 7-3 21.5
4. Gilroy 1496 7-3 21
5. Homestead 2367 8-2 20.5
6. Los Altos 2200 8-2 20
7. Silver Creek 2532 6-4 18.5 (-2 for loss to San Jose)
8. San Mateo 1682 7-3 18.5


Division II

1. Carmel 869 10-0 28
2. Half Moon Bay 997 9-1 25
3. Seaside 1054 9-1 25
4. Menlo 577 9-1 24.5
5. Scotts Valley 841 7-3 21.5
6. Kings Academy 577 7-3 19.5 (-2 for loss to Sequoia)
7. Gunderson 1146 8-2 19.17 (-2 for loss to Del Mar, -0.33 for being league co-champion)
8. Stevenson 498 6-3 18.41

Bubble Teams:

Independence 3104 6-4 17.83 (-.67 for Gunderson loss to Del Mar)
Branham 1512 6-4 18 (+0.5 if Cupertino upsets Homestead)
Woodside 1772 5-5 17.5
Pacific Grove 613 5-5 17
Sequoia 2113 5-5 16

Shouldn't San Mateo have 19 points since Mission currently has 4-6 wins and is now considered a B team?
 
Shouldn't San Mateo have 19 points since Mission currently has 4-6 wins and is now considered a B team?
I have San Mateo at 18.5 points.
7 wins =14 points + 3 schedule points (played 2 A teams - Aragon and Burlingame and 2 B teams SSF and Mission - I counted Mission as a B) + 1.5 points for being league champion in a C league = 18.5. A win over Burlingame would bump that to 20.5
 
I am just curious if any of you are coaches or still have boys involved??? This talk of being watered down and too many champions is just hog wash. Why is it so important that there is just one state champion?? This state is huge with 100 of thousands of kids playing a game we all love. Why shouldn't the young men of East Nic, a school of less than 300 get to experience what a school of DLS stature has gotten to enjoy. High school football or any sport for that matter is still a stepping stone for all of these young people to experience the lessons, the trials and tribulations of competition, discipline, hard work, not only being taught how to lose but also how to win. Come on guys everyone on here knows the only division anyone cares about and that the State Title revolves around is the Big Boys. The DLS game that everyone waits to watch vs the Big power to be from the South. The fact that these other divisions get to call themselves state champions, and by the way there is some VERY good football played in these divisions, should not be of any concern or certainly not be called watered down or the "P" word of America. I am far from what I call and "entitled" person or even condone it, I just simply feel that their are thousands of kids that deserve the same opportunities. It isn't like we are giving last place teams and teams not worthy of being champions a trophy. It is just giving them an experience that will last a life time. Coaches also benefit from this system. Coaches that I know work their A#$%es off for their kids, their school, and their community.
No matter what system is put in it will not make everyone happy. The demographics of this state just simply don't allow it. The "OLD" system left things up to committees and opinions. I really DO NOT want to go back to that.
Lastly let me preface this next statement by saying I am in total awe of what DLS has done and continues to do and I respect each and every accomplishment that they have and I as a High School football fan want them to continue as the marquis program in not only the North State but the whole state and still look forward to seeing them play in that last game the week before Christmas. However I just want other programs that work just as hard with less to at least get that chance to reach that pinnacle which in High School football is a State Championship. Albeit at a lower level. We are not playing for "NATIONAL" titles like the NCAA or the pros. But Division level State titles. I am prepared for the onslaught from all of you!!! LOL
I have been on this forum for years now and know how many of you think. I respect all of you knowing your opinion is just that, your opinion. This just happens to be mine. Much Respect to all of you!!!
 
I am just curious if any of you are coaches or still have boys involved??? This talk of being watered down and too many champions is just hog wash. Why is it so important that there is just one state champion?? This state is huge with 100 of thousands of kids playing a game we all love. Why shouldn't the young men of East Nic, a school of less than 300 get to experience what a school of DLS stature has gotten to enjoy. High school football or any sport for that matter is still a stepping stone for all of these young people to experience the lessons, the trials and tribulations of competition, discipline, hard work, not only being taught how to lose but also how to win. Come on guys everyone on here knows the only division anyone cares about and that the State Title revolves around is the Big Boys. The DLS game that everyone waits to watch vs the Big power to be from the South. The fact that these other divisions get to call themselves state champions, and by the way there is some VERY good football played in these divisions, should not be of any concern or certainly not be called watered down or the "P" word of America. I am far from what I call and "entitled" person or even condone it, I just simply feel that their are thousands of kids that deserve the same opportunities. It isn't like we are giving last place teams and teams not worthy of being champions a trophy. It is just giving them an experience that will last a life time. Coaches also benefit from this system. Coaches that I know work their A#$%es off for their kids, their school, and their community.
No matter what system is put in it will not make everyone happy. The demographics of this state just simply don't allow it. The "OLD" system left things up to committees and opinions. I really DO NOT want to go back to that.
Lastly let me preface this next statement by saying I am in total awe of what DLS has done and continues to do and I respect each and every accomplishment that they have and I as a High School football fan want them to continue as the marquis program in not only the North State but the whole state and still look forward to seeing them play in that last game the week before Christmas. However I just want other programs that work just as hard with less to at least get that chance to reach that pinnacle which in High School football is a State Championship. Albeit at a lower level. We are not playing for "NATIONAL" titles like the NCAA or the pros. But Division level State titles. I am prepared for the onslaught from all of you!!! LOL
I have been on this forum for years now and know how many of you think. I respect all of you knowing your opinion is just that, your opinion. This just happens to be mine. Much Respect to all of you!!!

Farmair,

The State Bowl games that are now implemented no longer group by size of school. It really has become the Open, which has the Top South and North teams playing for the State Championship, and a bunch of bowl games featuring the 2nd, 4th, 6th, etc..team in the South vs the North. Size of school has no bearing on which bowl they are in, it is based on the committee's seeding and they match the #2 vs #3 seed, followed by #4 vs #5, etc. in the North and the same for the South, and then the winners are matched against each other. It more closely resembles College Bowl games than any sort of playoff system.
 
CCS 2016 Play-off Picture post Week 9 (Friday night)

Projection of Open Play-off field - changes from last week noted in parentheses

Division I

1. San Benito 2899 10-0 33.5
2. Menlo-Atherton 2279 8-2 30
3. Milpitas 3149 8-2 26.5
4. Bellarmine 3200 7-3 25.5
5. Piedmont Hills 2208 6-4 22.5
6. Wilcox 1994 5-5 21.83 (-0.67 for VC being tri-champion, -0.5 for Monterey Trail being a B opponent)
7. Salinas 2675 5-5 21
8. Santa Teresa 2303 6-4 21

Division II

1. St. Francis 1757 9-1 30 (+2 for beating VC, +0.5 for being league tri-champ)
2. Los Gatos 1971 7-3 29.5
3. Oak Grove 1896 8-2 27.83 (+.033 for Saint Francis being league tri-champ)
4. Leigh 1674 8-2 27
5. Serra 1758 6-4 24.5 (+2 projected to beat Bellarmine, +0.5 for being league tri champ, -1 for Pittsburg loss)
6. Aragon 1521 7-3 23 (+2 beat Burlingame)
7. Mitty 1727 5-5 21.5 (-1 for Pittsburg loss)
8. Mountain View 1845 6-4 21

You have projected Serra to beat Bellarmine, but that is not reflected in the record for the Bells. That said, it doesn't currently seem to matter as they'd still probably be the 4th seed in D-I Open.
 
There are so many state titles now it has become almost meaningless. Not quite, but almost. Way back at the dawn of time early in the 20th century when CIF created a state tournament for football, only league champions were eligible. There was just one tournament. One champion. One clear top dog in California. Now, well, its almost AYSO for football.

People only think this way because of where we started: 3 divisions, then 5.

The fact is that there's only one other state that compares to California, in terms of total number of teams. That is Texas and they have 16 divisions. We only have 13.

Keep in mind just how big many of these overall brackets are. If an NCS D-II team plays the SJS D-III team in a regional, that's as many as 32 teams (16 in each sectional bracket). Then on to the state game against what would basically be the winner of another 32-team bracket. That state winner would have won a bracket of 64 teams.

I don't see how that could be deemed "meaningless".
 
I think 16 divisions is too many too. Honestly, having section playoffs hurts any chance of having a real state playoff. With the section playoffs as they are currently constructed, NorCal and state divisions are pretty arbitrary based on how the CIF wants to divy them up.
 
I think 16 divisions is too many too. Honestly, having section playoffs hurts any chance of having a real state playoff. With the section playoffs as they are currently constructed, NorCal and state divisions are pretty arbitrary based on how the CIF wants to divy them up.

I agree that 16 is too many. Out of our 13, though, only one is not a super-bracket.

I agree that the section system is problematic with state playoff proposals, although they aren't exactly arbitrary. The sections generally fall along county lines.

I think that even in an ideal state-wide playoff system, we'd have at least 10 or 11 divisions. One of the problems is that some sections allow a lot of teams with losing records. At the same time, though, a lot of those "losing" teams are beat up by bigger schools.

To me, if you don't take higher than 3rd in league, you should remain in a regional playoff. Only the top 2-3 teams (depending on the league) should advance to state playoffs if we ever would get to that point, just to manage the total number of teams.
 
the biggest problems with the CCS playoffs are:

1. The best are not playing the best
2. Losers advance (CCS broke the dam on this concept)
 
You have projected Serra to beat Bellarmine, but that is not reflected in the record for the Bells. That said, it doesn't currently seem to matter as they'd still probably be the 4th seed in D-I Open.

Serra is rated above Bellarmine in CalPreps, which is why they are projected to win.
 
Serra is rated above Bellarmine in CalPreps, which is why they are projected to win.

That wasn't my point. Serra is given points for the win, but Bellarmine is still listed above with 3 losses. If they lose to Serra, they'll have at least 4.
 
the biggest problems with the CCS playoffs are:

1. The best are not playing the best
2. Losers advance (CCS broke the dam on this concept)

1. There's only one division in the entire state where this takes place.
2. I still have mixed feelings about this.
 
PALBOOSTER, awesome work with CCS Playoff predictions (as usual). I have been a fan for a long time. I disagree with your statement that ARAGON, has clinched an auto-qualifying spot. If they lose to Hillsdale, Aragon, SHP, & Hillsdale finish PAL PLAY TIED AT 2-3. Hillsdale wins tie breaker (head to head wins against both) and SHP wins tie breaker against ARAGON (head-to-head). So, the last two auto spots would go to Hillsdale #3, and SHP #4. Aragon would then be an At-Large qualifier. Please double check.
 
PALBOOSTER, My apologies, your statement is correct. I forgot it is your prediction that Aragon beats Hillsdale, which then Aragon is PAL BAY #2, Burlingame #3, SHP #4. The Battle of The Fleas has big effect on playoffs, in D3/D2 if Hillsdale wins, which would be their 3rd in a row, and only their 4th in 26 years over Aragon.
 
1. There's only one division in the entire state where this takes place.
2. I still have mixed feelings about this.

1.- dont believe this is the case and not sure why the "nobody else does it" mantra is relevant.

NCS and SD section both have competitive equity Open playoffs to a great degree. SJS to somewhat of a degree.
This should be the goal of each section and the state. The CIF, wisely, has consistently moved to competitive equity playoffs over the years. It aint perfect, but it is the appropriate goal.

2. If we apply your logic of #1 to this- which is essentially, nobody else does it- why would any section allow a loser to advance. No level of football, even Pop Warner, has a loser in the playoffs advancing.
 
I have San Mateo at 18.5 points.
7 wins =14 points + 3 schedule points (played 2 A teams - Aragon and Burlingame and 2 B teams SSF and Mission - I counted Mission as a B) + 1.5 points for being league champion in a C league = 18.5. A win over Burlingame would bump that to 20.5

If Aptos opts to go up, it would move SHP down to division 5 and Gunderson up to Division 4...Is this correct?

And if two teams are tied with the same amount of points, do they flip a coin for the higher seed if there are no common opponents?
 
There are many pros and cons in the CCS playoff format and we could go back and forth all day. I think it is pretty watered down when you let a team, no offense SHP, but how the hell do you make the playoffs with 2 wins? You should at least be .500 to get in. I don't care who you played, if you only won two games you didn't earn the right to be in the playoffs period end of story.
 
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