CCS 2016 Play-off Picture post Week 9 (Friday night)
Going into the last week 21 of the 24 spots in the open division are spoken for and in the non-open division 9 of the 16 spots are locked up.
Open Division Leagues
DeAnza League – Los Gatos has clinched a solo league title with their win over Wilcox. Milpitas and Wilcox have also clinched automatic berths. The last automatic spot goes to Mountain View if they beat Palo Alto. Palo Alto gets the spot if they beat Mountain View and Los Gatos beats Saratoga. Saratoga gets the fourth spot if they beat Los Gatos and Palo Alto beats Mountain View. Saratoga has clinched an at-large berth if they don’t get the last automatic spot. Mt. View with a loss and Palo Alto with a win would be bubble teams for at-large berths if they do not get an automatic berth.
Gabilan League – All four automatic berths are locked up for San Bento, Palma, Monte Vista Christian and Salinas. The Palma and San Benito game will determine the league championship and have an impact on their non-league opponents (St. Francis, Aptos, Palo Alto, Wilcox and Los Gatos) final CCS points. Alvarez has a chance to end up at 19 points and on the at-large bubble with a win over North Salinas and if Elk Grove beats Sheldon.
Mt. Hamilton – All four automatic berths are also in place here with Oak Grove, Leigh, Live Oak and Piedmont Hills. Santa Teresa has locked up an at-large berth. Oak Grove wins the league outright with either a win over Piedmont Hills or a Leigh loss to Santa Teresa.
PAL-Bay – Menlo-Atherton is the outright league champion and Burlingame and Aragon have gained automatic berths. The last PAL spot goes to Hillsdale if they beat Aragon. If Hillsdale losses SHP gains the fourth spot. If SHP beats Menlo and McLymonds beats Oakland Tech they could end up at 19 points and in contention for a final at-large spot (they would lose a tie-breaker to Mountain View based on result with Hillsdale as a common opponent).
WCAL – The four automatic berths are locked up with Valley Christian, St. Francis, Serra, and Bellarmine. Valley Christian raps up the outright league championship with a win over Sacred Heart Cathedral. Mitty has clinched an at-large berth. SI can gain an at-large berth with a win over St. Francis or with a Campolindo upset over Clayton Valley Charter in week 10. A win by Marin Catholic in week 10 will give SI 19 points and put them on the bubble.
At-Large Berths – Top two teams have qualified regardless of week 10 results.
1. Santa Teresa 6-3 21 points (projected 6-4 +2 points if they beat Leigh)
2. Saratoga 5-4 20.5 points (projected 5-5 +2 points if they beat Los Gatos)
Mitty gets the third at-large spot with an Aptos win over San Lorenzo Valley or a win over Riordan
3. Mitty 4-5 18.83 points (projected at 5-5 21.5 +2 for beating Riordan, +0.67 if Aptos beats SLV).
Teams in contention for the final at-large spot
Mountain View 5-4 19 points. If they lose in week 10 5-5 19 points (projected to get an automatic spot)
St. Ignatius 4-5 18.5 points (+2 for beating St. Francis + 1 if Campolindo beats Clayton Valley + 0.5 if Marin Catholic beats Justin-Sienna) projected at 4-6 19 points.
Alvarez 3-6 16.5 points (+2 for beating North Salinas, +0.5 if Elk Grove beats Sheldon). Projected 17 points.
Palo Alto* 3-6 16.5 points (+2 for beating Mt. View, +1 If San Benito beats Palma, +0.5 if Oak Grove beats Piedmont Hills or Santa Teresa beats Leigh). Projected 18 points.
Sacred Heart Prep** 2-7 16 points (+2 for beating Menlo, +1 if McLymonds beats Oakland Tech) – can’t win tiebreaker against Mountain View (Hillsdale) or Saint Ignatius (Riordan) due to worst record against common opponent . Projected 17 points.
· Only if Both Saratoga and Palo Alto win and Saratoga gets AQ.
** Only if Hillsdale wins AQ
Opt-ups – The two teams with an ability to opt into the open will be Aptos (projected 8-2) and Carmel (projected 10-0). Aptos is currently playing without their starting QB and it is unknown if he will return for the play-offs and Carmel lost their 1,000 yard rusher in week 8 for the season. In the event that one team opts up it is likely that Sacred Heart Prep (or Hillsdale if they were to replace SHP as the Bay automatic qualifier) would be the team pushed down into the non-open division. If both teams opt up the second team to be pushed down under the current scenario would be SI. The net-net of this is that it looks almost certain that Valley Christian will be in DIII this year even if teams opt up.
Projection of Open Play-off field - changes from last week noted in parentheses
Division I
1. San Benito 2899 10-0 33.5
2. Menlo-Atherton 2279 8-2 30
3. Milpitas 3149 8-2 26.5
4. Bellarmine 3200 7-3 25.5
5. Piedmont Hills 2208 6-4 22.5
6. Wilcox 1994 5-5 21.83 (-0.67 for VC being tri-champion, -0.5 for Monterey Trail being a B opponent)
7. Salinas 2675 5-5 21
8. Santa Teresa 2303 6-4 21
Division II
1. St. Francis 1757 9-1 30 (+2 for beating VC, +0.5 for being league tri-champ)
2. Los Gatos 1971 7-3 29.5
3. Oak Grove 1896 8-2 27.83 (+.033 for Saint Francis being league tri-champ)
4. Leigh 1674 8-2 27
5. Serra 1758 6-4 24.5 (+2 projected to beat Bellarmine, +0.5 for being league tri champ, -1 for Pittsburg loss)
6. Aragon 1521 7-3 23 (+2 beat Burlingame)
7. Mitty 1727 5-5 21.5 (-1 for Pittsburg loss)
8. Mountain View 1845 6-4 21
Division III
1. Valley Christian 1512 9-1 30 (-2 for loss to St. Francis, -1 for being league tri-champ, +0.5 for Pleasant Valley being co-champion)
2. Palma 890 7-3 26.83 (+0.33 for St. Francis being tri-champ)
3. Live Oak 1096 8-2 26
4. Monte Vista Christian 900 8-2 25
5. Burlingame 1385 6-4 22 (-2 lost to Aragon)
6. Saratoga 1305 5-5 20.5
7. Saint Ignatius 1467 4-6 19
8. Sacred Heart Prep 615 2-8 17
Non open Divisions
El Camino – Even with the Cupertino loss to Fremont Friday the game between Cupertino and Homestead will determine league championship and automatic berth. Los Altos will get an at-large spot with 20 points with a win vs last place Gunn.
Mission Trail – The automatic berths have been clinched by Carmel and Soledad. A Carmel win this week or a Soledad loss makes Carmel the sole league champion. Pacific Grove is sitting with 17 points and can add 2 points and make the play-offs by upsetting Carmel. Stevenson ends at 18.42 with a win over Marina which will leave them on the bubble currently projected as last team in.
Pacific - Seaside clinched the league’s automatic spot. A Seaside win or Gilroy lose makes them sole champion. Gilroy has 19 points and will get to 21 if they win as favored against North Monterey County.
PAL Ocean – League play is over and HMB got the automatic berth as co-champion with Menlo. Menlo sits at 22.5 points (24.5 if they beat SHP) has clinched an at-large berth and Kings Academy sits at 17.5 points (19.5 if they beat Jefferson) gets an at –large berth with a win. Woodside 17.5 points (must beat Menlo-Atherton +2) to get an at-large berth. Sequoia sits at 16 points and must beat Carlmont and have Rancho Cotate upset Cardinal Newman to get to 19 points and an at-large berth.
PAL Lake – San Mateo clinched the leagues automatic berth as sole champion.
Santa Cruz Coast League – Even though a San Lorenzo Valley upset over Aptos would create a three way tie for the league championship the automatic berths would still go to Aptos and Scotts Valley. SLV sits at 17.5 points and would gain 2.33 points by beating Aptos and 0.5 for Homestead beating Cupertino which would give them an at-large berth.
Santa Teresa – Two games with both play-off and league championship consequences. The winner of the Westmont and Branham game gets the leagues automatic berth. Westmont wins the league outright if they beat Branham. Westmont already has enough points (22) for an at-large berth if they do not get the automatic spot.
Branham is sitting with 18 points and picks up 2.33 points with a win over Westmont and 0.5 point if Cupertino beats Homestead.
Silver Creek is sitting with 16.5 points and could gain 2 points with a win over independence.
Independence is sitting with 17.5 points and would get 2 points with a win over Silver Creek and 0.33 points if Gunderson beats Overfelt.
West Valley – Despite Del Mar’s upset of Gunderson this week, the winner of this week’s Gunderson and Overfelt game will determine the league champion. If Overfelt wins they are the sole league champion. IF Gunderson wins they win the tie breaker as tri-champions with Del Mar and Overfelt
Automatic Qualifiers: Carmel, Soledad, Aptos, Scotts Valley, Seaside, Half Moon Bay, San Mateo
Automatic Qualifiers to be determined: either Cupertino or Homestead, Westmont or Branham, Gunderson or Overfelt
At-Large :
1. Menlo 22.5
2. Westmont (if not AQ) 22
3. Gilroy 19
4. Los Altos 18
5. Branham 18
6. Independence 17.5
7. Kings Academy 17.5
8. Woodside 17.5
9. Pacific Grove 17
10. Silver Creek 16.5
11. Stevenson 16.41
12. Sequoia 16
Non Open Division I
1. Aptos 1411 8-2 26.5
2. Westmont 1541 9-1 24.5
3. Soledad 1431 7-3 21.5
4. Gilroy 1496 7-3 21
5. Homestead 2367 8-2 20.5
6. Los Altos 2200 8-2 20
7. Silver Creek 2532 6-4 18.5 (-2 for loss to San Jose)
8. San Mateo 1682 7-3 18.5
Division II
1. Carmel 869 10-0 28
2. Half Moon Bay 997 9-1 25
3. Seaside 1054 9-1 25
4. Menlo 577 9-1 24.5
5. Scotts Valley 841 7-3 21.5
6. Kings Academy 577 7-3 19.5 (-2 for loss to Sequoia)
7. Gunderson 1146 8-2 19.17 (-2 for loss to Del Mar, -0.33 for being league co-champion)
8. Stevenson 498 6-3 18.41
Bubble Teams:
Independence 3104 6-4 17.83 (-.67 for Gunderson loss to Del Mar)
Branham 1512 6-4 18 (+0.5 if Cupertino upsets Homestead)
Woodside 1772 5-5 17.5
Pacific Grove 613 5-5 17
Sequoia 2113 5-5 16