Final CCS Play-off Projections After Week 10 - Aptos opts up

[PAL Booster]

CCS 2016 Play-off Picture As League Play Starts


The CCS play-off format put into place last year makes projecting the play-offs a little clearer as more teams are selected based on league finish rather than the more complex points system.


To refresh, the CCS play-offs are broken into two tiers. There are 24 teams placed in the three open divisions where the winners and two of the three runner-ups are eligible for the regional play-offs. There are 16 teams from the sections B and C leagues that participate in the two non-open divisions. Once the teams are chosen they are placed in division by their school enrollment.

Each of the section’s five A leagues place their top 4 teams in the play-offs and then four at-large teams are selected from these five leagues based on their CCS points. The one wrinkle to this is that two B leagues (Santa Cruz Coast and Mission Trail) winners can opt up to the Open Division and replace the team in the open division with the lowest point total. The team that is bumped goes into the non-open play-offs.

Open Division Leagues

DeAnza League – Milpitas will be a heavy favorite to win the league outright this year. Los Gatos and Wilcox look to be well positioned for second and third. The final automatic spot should be determined by the winner of the Saratoga and Palo Alto game this week. If Saratoga finishes 5th they would have a good chance for an at-large position. Palo Alto would likely be 3-7 if they lose to Saratoga and would have trouble gaining an at-large spot.

Gabilan League – Palma and San Benito should take the top two spots with Salinas likely to finish third and Monta Vista Christian likely to take the final automatic spot. The winner of North Salinas and Alvarez will likely take 5th place and have a good chance for an at-large bid.

Mt. Hamilton – Oak Grove is again a strong favorite to win the league with Live Oak and Leigh likely to battle for second and third . Piedmont Hills and Lincoln are likely to battle for the 4th spot, but Lincoln always opts to play in the Big Bone game on Thanksgiving and does not participate in the CCS play-offs. Santa Teresa should be well positioned to get an at-large spot if they finish in 6th place or better.


PAL-Bay – Menlo-Atherton is a strong favorite to win the league. Terra Nova looks like the league’s weakest team, but the 2-5 spots should be very competitive as all of these teams (Aragon, Burlingame, Hillsdale and Sacred Heart Prep) have been relatively inconsistent to date and are fully capable of beating each other. If Aragon or Hillsdale finish fifth they are likely to have sufficient points to gain an at-large spot based on their strong non-league record. Burlingame and SHP will likely need to get an automatic qualifying spot to make the play-offs.

WCAL – Top four teams figure to be St. Francis, Valley Christian, Bellarmine, and Serra. Mitty and SI look like the next two teams and should have a strong shot at an at-large bid. SI likely needs to beat Riordan this week to have a chance at an-large berth.

The two teams that are likely to have an opportunity to opt in to the open play-offs would be a projected 10-0 Carmel team and a projected 8-2 Aptos team. For now I will assume they do not opt up. If Aptos does opt up they would be in Division III and either St. Ignatius, North Salinas or Santa Teresa would drop to the non-open play-offs.

One change for the CCS play-offs this year is that teams from eh same league will be permitted to play each other in the first rounds and teams seedings will not be changed.

First Projection of Open Play-off field
Division I

1. San Benito 2899 10-0 32.5
2. Milpitas 3149 10-0 32
3. Menlo-Atherton 2279 8-2 29
4. Bellarmine 3200 7-3 26.5
5. Salinas 2675 6-4 24
6. Piedmont Hills 2208 6-4 22.5
7. Wilcox 1994 5-5 21.5
8. Santa Teresa 2303 5-5 19

Division II

1. St. Francis 1757 10-0 33
2. Oak Grove 1896 8-2 27.5
3. Los Gatos 1971 6-4 26
4. Leigh 1674 8-2 24
5. Mitty 1727 5-5 22.5
6. Aragon 1521 7-3 22
7. Serra 1758 4-6 21
8. North Salinas 1943 4-6 19


Division III

1. Valley Christian 1512 9-1 30
2. Live Oak 1096 9-1 28
3. Palma 890 7-3 27
4. Saratoga 1305 6-4 23.5
5. Monta Vista Christian 900 7-3 23
6. Sacred Heart Prep 615 5-5 22
7. Hillsdale1386 6-4 21.5
8. St. Ignatius 1467 4-6 19

Teams that would be out: Burlingame, Palo Alto, Riordan, Terra Nova, Mountain View,, Santa Clara, Sacred Heart Cathedral, Christopher, Monterey, Willow Glen , Pioneer, Lincoln


Non Open Divisions

El Camino – a C league with a chance to have two teams qualify. Championship is likely to come down to Homestead or Los Altos with the winner getting an automatic berth. The loser (Los Altos at 9-1 would almost be a guaranteed at-large team or Homestead 7-3) would have a good chance at an at large assuming the loser of this game ends up 6-1 in league. Cupertino is still undefeated at this point although with a weaker schedule and Fremont may be capable of upsetting one of these teams.

Mission Trail – Carmel is a prohibitive favorite to win this league. Hard to gauge if they would play up. There is no indication that they could compete well in the open based on barely nipping Scotts Valley in OT and not facing anyone that is an A caliber paly-off team on their schedule. 2nd through 5th place in this league looks to be competitive between Stevenson, Pacific Grove, King City and Soledad. The second place finisher will get an automatic berth and the third place finisher is likely to qualify as an at-large team.

Pacific – A very weak B league where Seaside looks to be the favorite. Gilroy will have a chance at an at-large spot if they can finish 6-1 in league, but they had to work to beat a winless Alisal team in their league opener.

PAL Ocean – A very strong preseason for the second year running as four teams (HMB, Kings Academy, Woodside and Menlo) all emerged from pre-season at 4-0. HMB had wins over Saratoga and Burlingame and Woodside beat Hillsdale. Kings Academy and Menlo played a pretty easy pre-league slate but put up big numbers and it is a little hard to assess where they are at this point. Even South SF which lost to two C league teams, showed some capability with a with over Burlingame. At this point Half Moon Bay would have to be the favorite with Woodside second in what should be a competitive league that will get two and maybe three at-large berths.

PAL Lake – a C league that figures to be a three way race between Capuchino, Jefferson, and San Mateo. Unlikely that any team here will get an at-large bid.

Santa Cruz Coast League – Aptos is a heavy favorite to win the league and with non-league wins against Aragon, Salinas and Capital Christian (losses to Mitty and Palma) might opt to play up if they end the season healthy and would be in open Division III. San Lorenzo Valley and Scotts Valley should fight it out for second place and the final automatic qualifier spot. the loser should get an at-large spot.

Santa Teresa – A mediocre B league. Westmont looks like the favorite with it being competitive for 2nd through 4th place between Independence, Silver Creek, and Branham. The second place team will be on the bubble for an at-large berth.

West Valley – A C league where Gunderson is a favorite over Overfelt. Only Gunderson would have a shot at an –large berth.

Non Open Division I

1. Aptos 1411 8-2 26.5
2. Westmont 1541 9-1 24.5
3. Woodside 1772 8-2 22.5
4. Soledad1431 7-3 21.5
5. Los Altos 2200 9-1 21
6. Silver Creek 2532 7-3 20.5
7. Homestead 2367 7-3 19.5
8. Capuchino 1180 7-3 19

Division II

1. Half Moon Bay 997 10-0 28.5
2. Carmel 869 10-0 28
3. Seaside 1054 9-1 25
4. Kings Academy 8-2 577 21.5
5. Gunderson 1146 9-1 21.5
6. Scotts Valley 841 7-3 21.5
7. San Lorenzo Valley 767 7-3 21.5
8. Stevenson 498 7-2 20.27

Bubble Teams: Menlo 6-4 19, Independence 6-4 18.5, Branham 6-4 18, King City 5-5 17.5

 

[jordan24]

PALBooster, nice early analysis. WCAL At-Large spots way too early, but next week should give us a better indicator. At large scenarios provide another compelling reason to keep tabs on the WCAL race besides the Title contenders.
At Large hopefuls - Riordan and SI square off Sat night @ Kezar and Mitty hosts Valley Christian.

 

[colhenrylives]

As always, the bodacious Booster is a font of good early information and prognostication. No one does the CCS playoff outlook better, matter the online site.

 

[FBAddict]

Wow - you are starting week 4! An amazed thanks!

 

[carmelkyd]

Won't be long before Booster is predicting the play-off picture for both the current season and the next season.

Great job as usual.

 

[PAL Booster]

CCS 2016 Play-off Picture post Week 5


The big news this week was Los Gatos win over Milpitas which gives Los Gatos the inside track to win the Deanza League. A couple of other big week 5 games were Saratoga’s win over Palo Alto. SI’s win over Riordan will help SI’s bid for an at-large berth.


What changed in the projections: Burlingame is now projected to take AN AQ spot in the PAL Bay and replaces Hillsdale who lost to Mountain View in a non-league game. North Salinas and Palo Alto are tied for the last at-large spot in this proejction


Open Division Leagues


DeAnza League – This week’s games had a big impact on final league standings. Los Gatos is know the favorite to win the league but need to navigate Wilcox. Saratoga should take the 4th at-large spot. Mountain View, with their OT win over Hillsdale would have a chance at an-large berth if they can get by Palo Alto and Santa Clara. Palo Alto is on the bubble for the last at-large berth.


Gabilan League – The only meaningful news here in week was the Milpitas loss. This will take points away from North Salinas and moved them onto the bubble for the projected at-large teams. Salinas will also likely lose a point (and San Benito will gain one) but that will only impact their seeding.


Mt. Hamilton – Santa Teresa’s win over Lincoln solidifies their position to make the play-offs. Leigh beat Live Oak in what was likely a game for second place. This week’s game between Leigh and Oak Grove will likely determine the Mt. Hamilton league championship.


PAL-Bay – Burlingame beat Sacred Heart Prep 14-7. Still looks like Menlo-Atherton is a clear favorite with Burlingame, SHP, Aragon and Hillsdale in a race for the last three paly-off spots. Terra Nova has not shown much yet this year.


WCAL – SI beat Riordan which was likely a game for 6th place and puts SI in a good position to get an at-large bid for the play-offs. Little else changes in the leagues projections at this point.


First Projection of Open Play-off field - changes from last week noted in parentheses

Division I


1. San Benito 2899 10-0 33.5 (Added a point for playing Los Gatos)

2. Menlo-Atherton 2279 8-2 30 (gained a point for playing Los Gatos)

3. Milpitas 3149 9-1 28.5 (-2 for losing to LG and -2.5 for not being league champ)

4. Bellarmine 3200 7-3 26.5

5. Salinas 2675 6-4 23 (lose a point from Milpitas)

6. Piedmont Hills 2208 6-4 22.5

7. Wilcox 1994 5-5 21.5

8. Santa Teresa 2303 6-4 21 (gained 2 points was projected to lose to Lincoln)


Division II

1. St. Francis 1757 10-0 33

2. Los Gatos 1971 7-3 29.5 (+2 pts beating Milpitas +2.5 for projecting as league champ)

3. Oak Grove 1896 8-2 27.5

4. Leigh 1674 8-2 27 (+2 for beating Live Oak)

5. Mitty 1727 5-5 22.5

6. Aragon 1521 7-3 22

7. Serra 1758 4-6 21

8. North Salinas 1943 4-6 18 (-1 for Milpitas) or Palo Alto 1985 3-7 18


Division III

1. Valley Christian 1512 9-1 30

2. Palma 890 7-3 27

3. Live Oak 1096 8-2 26 (-2 for loss to Leigh)

4. Saratoga 1305 6-4 23.5

5. Monta Vista Christian 900 7-3 23

6. Burlingame 1385 6-4 21.5 (+2 for beating SHP, +2 new projections)

7. St. Ignatius 1467 4-6 19

8. Sacred Heart Prep 615 3-7 18 (-2 for loss to Burlingame, -2 for new projections)


Teams that would be out: North Salinas or Palo Alto, Hillsdale, Riordan, Terra Nova, Mountain View,, Santa Clara, Sacred Heart Cathedral, Christopher, Alvarez, Willow Glen , Pioneer, Lincoln


Non open Divisions


El Camino – This weeks game between Los Alto and Homestead will likely settle the league championship.


Mission Trail – Stevenson’s win over Pacific Grove and Soledad’s win over King City put the winner’s in a good position. Stevenson’s game vs King City this week is likely to determine third place and at-large berth.


Pacific Seaside game against Gilroy this week could be the game that determines the league championship.


PAL Ocean – This league is very dynamic and the final results will determine a few of the at-large berths in the non-open divisions. The two lowest rated teams (Sequoia and South San Francisco) knocked Woodside and Kings Academy from the undefeated ranks. HMB looks like a clear favorite to win the league but the rest looks pretty muddled with the likely picture changing from week to week.


PAL Lake – This week’s game between Capuchino and San Mateo could determine the league champsionship.


Santa Cruz Coast League – San Lorenzo Valley’s loss to Capuchino puts them on the bubble for an at-large berth if they can’t grab second place over Scotts Valley.


Santa Teresa – Branham’s win over Independence gives them a leg up on finishing second or third in the league.


West Valley – No real changes here from last week.


Non Open Division I


1. Aptos 1411 8-2 26.5

2. Westmont 1541 9-1 24.5

3. Soledad1431 7-3 21.5

4. Los Altos 2200 9-1 21

5. Capuchino 1180 8-2 21 (+2 for win over San Lorenzo Valley)

6. Silver Creek 2532 7-3 20.5

7. Woodside 1772 7-3 20.5 (-2 for loss to Sequoia)

8. Homestead 2367 7-3 18.5 (-1 for Milpitas)


Division II


1. Half Moon Bay 997 10-0 28.5

2. Carmel 869 10-0 28

3. Seaside 1054 9-1 25

4. Gunderson 1146 9-1 21.5

5. Scotts Valley 841 7-3 21.5

6. Stevenson 498 7-2 20.27

7. Kings Academy 7-3 577 19.5 (-2 for loss to South San Francisco)

8. San Lorenzo Valley 767 6-4 19.5 (-2 for loss to Capuchino)


Bubble Teams: Menlo 6-4 19, Independence 6-4 18.5, Branham 6-4 18, King City 5-5 17.5

 

[colhenrylives]

What can one say? Terrific work. Again.

 

[SpeedCity51]

Great work as always. Only question is Why is Monterey listed as being out of the A league playoffs? They are in the MBL Pacific this year and are 1-0 and favorites in there next 3 games. If they win those three they will be sitting at 5-3 and 4-0 in league with games against current front runners Gilroy and Seaside.

 

[FBAddict]

Great addition this year of writing reasons for CCS powerpoint changes from week to week. Thanks for the GREAT work!

 

[PAL Booster]

Great work as always. Only question is Why is Monterey listed as being out of the A league playoffs? They are in the MBL Pacific this year and are 1-0 and favorites in there next 3 games. If they win those three they will be sitting at 5-3 and 4-0 in league with games against current front runners Gilroy and Seaside.

Good catch - meant to list Alvarez. Monterey didn't look too strong in their pre-league games - and based not hat performance didn't see them getting past Seaside or Gilroy and they will have a toss-up game with Watsonville. Were they able to add some players that were hurt early in the year? Some teams like SSF take a few weeks to gel - so you can't always predict easily off of the results of the first few weeks of the season. Monterey will likely need to go 7-3 to get an large berth. At 6-4 they would be on the bubble and I project them to be 5-5 or 4-6.

 

[SpeedCity51]

Yea I agree I don't think the odds are in Monterey's favor, But they have a shot. They are only going to be big underdogs in their last game, but it's a big rivalry game so you never know.

 

[thehookup55]

One change for the CCS play-offs this year is that teams from eh same league will be permitted to play each other in the first rounds and teams seedings will not be changed.

I always thought it was stupid to changing seedings to avoid league matchups.

 

[FBAddict]

I always thought it was stupid to changing seedings to avoid league matchups.

The intention of the previous rule made sense... Who wants to see a team enter playoffs playing the same team as in leagues. Playoffs are intended to get teams playing those not encountered before. However with CCS new structure, it created too many realignment issues to have the first round avoidance of league mates.

 

[thehookup55]

The intention of the previous rule made sense... Who wants to see a team enter playoffs playing the same team as in leagues. Playoffs are intended to get teams playing those not encountered before. However with CCS new structure, it created too many realignment issues to have the first round avoidance of league mates.

What difference does it make if you are playing in round 1 or 2. I get the intention but how many times did those teams end up playing a league member in the next round.

 

[FBAddict]

You are looking at it from top end down as an end result. But looking it from the other direction, a team is assured to get at least one opportunity to play a team outside their league. That opportunity is not pointless as an experience. It's only becomes meaningless if, and only if, that team can advance to play a league mate the next round.

 

[MJ2014]

MA looks to be a serious contender as they have size, speed, etc.....

 

[colhenrylives]

But the M-A lack of serious depth could wind up being a problem when they face off with some of the CCS big boys outside the PAL. And the PAL Bay Division is way down this year as well.

 

[GOTF]

Some could say the Ocean has more depth and is tougher than the bay this year.

 

[colhenrylives]

M-A and SHP have played, by far, the toughest pre-season schedules in the PAL this year. No team in the Lake or Ocean comes close to those two in terms of opponents. And M-A appears to be the strongest of any PAL unit. No question, though, the Bay is down this year overall. But let's see how this all plays out. Every team, including HMB (your personal favorite) has serious flaws.

 

[PAL Booster]

CCS 2016 Play-off Picture post Week 6


Not much changed for projecting the field for the three open divisions from this week’s results. Some games in the B and C leagues this week likely decided some league championships.


Open Division Leagues


DeAnza League – Nothing really changed here. With four weeks left Los Gatos is in the driver’s seat to win the league and will have to navigate Wilcox in Week 9 as their biggest challenge. Wilcox controls their own destiny but have games against Milpitas and Los Gatos ahead of them. Saratoga is well positioned to gain the fourth and final AQ spot.


Gabilan League – Everything went as projected in the Gabilan last week. No real changes here. Palma and San Benito will likely face off in week for the league championship with Salinas and Monte Vista Christian will likely get the other two automatic spots


Mt. Hamilton – Oak Grove soundly beat the second highest ranked team in the league Leigh 48-14 this week and will be heavily favored in their remaining games. Leigh, Live Oak, Santa Teresa, and Piedmont Hills will get three of the remaining four Automatic spots with the odd team out having a good shot at an at-large berth


PAL-Bay – Menlo-Atherton continues to look like they are a level above anyone else in this league. The remaining five teams are all capable of beating each other. Terra Nova showed signs of life by edging Hillsdale and Sacred Heart Prep picked up their first win of the season in edging Aragon. These four teams and Burlingame will battle for the three spots behind MA with the fifth place team unlikely to make the play-offs.


WCAL – Serra OT win over St. Francis leaves Valley Christian as the leagues only undefeated team. The top five teams (Valley Christian, St Francis, Bellarmine, Serra, and Mitty) should all make the open field rather easily with SI in a good position for an at large berth.


At-Large Berths – there are four open at-large berths. Projections as of now


1. Mitty 4-2 projected at 5-5 21.5 points (22.5 if Pittsburg wins their league)

2. Santa Teresa 5-1 projected at 6-4 21 points

3. St. Ignatius 3-3 projected at 4-6 19 points (Could lose 0.5 points if Campolindo losses two more games, and could gain an extra point if Campolindo wins their league

4. Mountain View 3-3 projected at 5-5 19 points


Others: The winner of the North Salinas vs Alvarez game will likely end with 18 points. If Aragon finishes 5th in the Bay they could have18 points. If Palo Alto beats Mountain View they would could end up with 18 points.


Projection of Open Play-off field - changes from last week noted in parentheses

Division I


1. San Benito 2899 10-0 33.5

2. Menlo-Atherton 2279 8-2 30

3. Milpitas 3149 9-1 28.5

4. Bellarmine 3200 7-3 25.5 (-1 from Del Oro loss)

5. Salinas 2675 6-4 23

6. Wilcox 1994 5-5 23 (+1 for VC as League Champ+0.5 for Monterey Trail as an A team)

7.Piedmont Hills 2208 6-4 22.5

8. Santa Teresa 2303 6-4 21


Division II

1. Los Gatos 1971 7-3 29.5

2. St. Francis 1757 8-2 27.5 (lost 2 pts for loss to Serra, 1.5 pts for not being solo league champ a 2 points for new projected loss to VC)

3. Oak Grove 1896 8-2 27.5

4. Leigh 1674 8-2 27

5. Serra 1758 5-5 22 (picked up 2 pts for beating St. Francis)

6. Mitty 1727 5-5 21.5

7. Aragon 1521 6-4 21 (-2 from loss to SHP+1 for San Mateo)

8. Mountain View 1845 5-5 19 points (plus 2 for projected win over Palo Alto)


North Salinas 1943 4-6 18 or Palo Alto 1985 3-7 18 (now projected at 2-8 16 points)


Division III

1. Valley Christian 1512 10-0 32.5 (+2 projected win over St. Francis and +1.5 for league championship

2. Palma 890 7-3 26.5

3. Live Oak 1096 8-2 26

4. Burlingame 1385 7-3 24.5 (+1 for San Mateo)

5. Saratoga 1305 6-4 23

6. Monta Vista Christian 900 7-3 23

7. St. Ignatius 1467 4-6 19

8. Sacred Heart Prep 615 3-7 18.5 (+2 for beating Aragon, -2 now projected to lose to Menlo)


Teams that would be out: North Salinas, Alvarez, Christopher. Palo Alto, Hillsdale, Riordan, Terra Nova, Santa Clara, Sacred Heart Cathedral, Willow Glen , Pioneer, Lincoln


Non open Divisions


El Camino – Homestead’s win over Los Alto puts them in the drivers seat to win this league and the only AQ spot. Los Altos will get an at-large spot if they win out. Fremont and Cupertino are also undefeated in league play but must play each other as well as Los Altos and Homestead.


Mission Trail – King City’s win over Stevenson puts them in great position for third place and a projection of 19.5 points. Carmel is a heavy favorite to win the league and Soledad is favored for the other AQ spot. Stevenson will need to upset Soledad on the road to put themselves back in position for an at-large spot. Carmel plays Soledad this week in a matchup of the two top teams with Carmel a heavy favorite.


Pacific - Seaside’s win over Gilroy this week gives them a win over their highest rated league team. Monterey and Watsonville remain undefeated in league as well. Gilroy will be a slight favorite in their remaining four games and if they go 7-3 they will end up with 21 points and an at-large berth.


PAL Ocean – Half Moon Bay and Sequoia are the only two remaining unbeaten teams and play this week. HMB will be a heavy favorite. With their win over Kings Academy Menlo goes to 5-1 and will be a slight favorite in their remaining four games and will need to go 2-2 to get an at-large spot. Woodside and Kings Academy – both 4-2 and on 2 game losing streaks face-off with the winner still in contention for an at-large berth. This league’s teams outside of HMB are all closely rated.


PAL Lake – San Mateo’s surprisingly easy win over Capuchino puts them in great position to win their league. They have beaten the two highest rated teams in their league. They play the last remaining undefeated team in their league Carlmont this week.


Santa Cruz Coast League – Aptos has won 28 straight league games over the last five years, but faced a good challenge in beating Scotts Valley 21-14 this week. Scotts Valley is favored over San Lorenzo Valley for the second at-large berth.


Santa Teresa – No changes here. Westmont remains favored with Silver Creek, Branham and Independence in contention for an at-large spot. This week’s winner between Silver Creek and Branham will have a leg up on second place in this league and an at-large berth.


West Valley – No real changes here from last week. Gunderson still a big favorite to win the league.


With the change of San Mateo being added to the field it pushes Aptos down to Division II.


Non Open Division I


1. Westmont 1541 9-1 24.5

2. Los Altos 2200 9-1 22 (+1 For playing San Mateo)

3. Soledad1431 7-3 21.5

4. Gilroy 1496 7-3 21

5. Homestead 2367 8-2 20.5

6. Branham 1512 7-3 20 (+2 projected to beat Silver Creek)

7. Woodside 1772 6-4 19.5 (-2 for projected loss to Menlo)

8. San Mateo1682 7-3 18.5 (+2 beat Capuchino, +0.5 for league championship)



Division II


1. Carmel 869 10-0 28

2. Half Moon Bay 997 10-0 27.5 (losses one point for Capuchino not being Lake champion)

3. Aptos 1411 8-2 26.5

4. Seaside 1054 9-1 25

5. Menlo 577 9-1 24

6. Gunderson 1146 9-1 21.5

7. Scotts Valley 841 7-3 21.5

8. King City 1019 6-4 19.5 (+2 for beating Stevenson)





Bubble Teams: Silver Creek 2532 6-4 18.5 (-2 projected to loss to Branham)

Independence 6-4 18.5

Capuchino 1180 7-3 18.5 (-2 for loss to San Mateo and -0.5 and for losing league championship points).

Stevenson 498 7-2 18.41 (-2 for loss to King City, - .25 for change in 9 game formula)

San Lorenzo Valley 767 6-4 18 (-1 for Capuchino not being league champion)

Kings Academy 5-5 577 15.5 (-2 points for loss to Menlo, -2 for projected loss to Sequoia)

 

[Cal 14]

I always thought it was stupid to changing seedings to avoid league matchups.

You have to remember that the playoffs had a lot to do with how leagues were slated as A, B, or C. Having league-mates eliminate each other in the first round automatically would have lost point opportunities for the league.

With the new setup, the A leagues are automatically going to be A leagues, so it doesn't matter anymore.

 

[RoodyPoo]

PALBooster,

As always, sincerely appreciate your hard and detailed work to forecast these projections. Consider this and double-check me:

1) If Alvarez beats North Salinas, they could very well end up with MORE than 18 points, due to the fact that they could receive some fraction of a point from Elk Grove sharing their league championship;
2) If Palo Alto beats Mountain View, they most likely will reach no more than 18 points (less if Palma were to beat San Benito);

Therefore, Alvarez still has a reasonable chance at an At-Large spot. If that were to happen, it would push Wilcox into the "A" League Division II Bracket. Agree?

 

[PAL Booster]

PALBooster,

As always, sincerely appreciate your hard and detailed work to forecast these projections. Consider this and double-check me:

1) If Alvarez beats North Salinas, they could very well end up with MORE than 18 points, due to the fact that they could receive some fraction of a point from Elk Grove sharing their league championship;
2) If Palo Alto beats Mountain View, they most likely will reach no more than 18 points (less if Palma were to beat San Benito);

Therefore, Alvarez still has a reasonable chance at an At-Large spot. If that were to happen, it would push Wilcox into the "A" League Division II Bracket. Agree?

You are correct that Alvarez has a decent chance - both the Alvarez vs North Salinas and Palo Alto vs Mountain View games are basically toss ups. Elk Grove is currently in a 5 way tie for first but if the rankings hold out Elk Grove will likely be a co-champion of their league although they have a challenging game ahead in playing Monterey Trail.

There are other scenarios that are not that far fetched (like Aragon finishing 5th in the Bay with 19 points) that are still in play as well. This will continue to narrow and crystalize over the next week or two.

 

[PALbooster]

CCS 2016 Play-off Picture post Week 7 (Friday night)

Only two games expected to be of consequence on Saturday – Independence vs Sobrato and Valley Christian playing Bellarmine. Assuming Independence and Valley Christian win and will edit if that is not the case.

Open Division Leagues

DeAnza League – Big shake-up in the middle of the league as Palo Alto upset Wilcox and Mountain View beat Saratoga. Los Gatos is still favored to win the league with Milpitas second. Wilcox will end the league season at 3-3 with losses to Los Gatos and Milpitas but that should be good enough for a tie for third. The final automatic berth will likely go the winner of the Mountain View vs Palo Alto game in week 10. Saratoga will likely finish at 2-4 but with a projection of 21 points would be an at-large team. The loser of the Palo Alto vs Mountain View game will also finish 2-4 and if Mountain View losses they would have 19 points and if Palo alto loses they would have 18 points (assuming San Benito wins their league).

Gabilan League –No real changes here. Palma and San Benito will likely face off in week for the league championship with Salinas and Monte Vista Christian will likely get the other two automatic spots. With the events in DeAnza league chances for the 5th place finisher (North Salinas -18 or Alvarez- 18.5) to get an at-large spot are diminished.

Mt. Hamilton – No changes here as well. Oak Grove has an easy road to the league championship and Leigh and Live Oak should get the next two spots. The final automatic berth is likely to come down to the winner of the Santa Teresa and Piedmont Hills game. Assuming Piedmont Hills beats Lincoln next week the loser will have at least 20 points and will get an at-large berth.

PAL-Bay – Menlo-Atherton is the league’s only undefeated a team and has clinched an automatic berth. The rest of this league is a toss-up with five teams Aragon, Burlingame, Hillsdale, Sacred Heart Prep and Terra Nova fighting for three berths with only Aragon having a chance of an at-large berth by finishing 5th.


WCAL – No changes here, except the Deanza results put St. Ignatius on the bubble for an at-large spot.

At-Large Berths – there are four open at-large berths. Projections as of now

1. Mitty 4-3 projected at 5-5 21.5 points (22.5 if Pittsburg wins their league)
2. Santa Teresa 5-2 projected at 6-4 21 points
3. Saratoga 4-4 projected at 5-5 21 points
4. St. Ignatius 3-3 projected at 4-6 19 points (Could lose 0.5 points if Campolindo losses two more games, and could gain an extra point if Campolindo wins their league) or
4. Mountain View 3-3 projected at 5-5 19 points

Bubble: winner of Alvarez (18.5) and North Salinas (18), Palo Alto (18 if they loss to Mt. View).

Projection of Open Play-off field - changes from last week noted in parentheses

Division I

1. San Benito 2899 10-0 33.5
2. Menlo-Atherton 2279 8-2 30
3. Milpitas 3149 9-1 28.5
4. Bellarmine 3200 7-3 25.5
5. Salinas 2675 6-4 23
6. Piedmont Hills 2208 6-4 22.5
7. Wilcox 1994 5-5 21 (-2 for loss to Palo Alto)
8. Santa Teresa 2303 6-4 21

Division II – three scenarios based on Palo Alto vs Mt. View outcome and who gets final at-large berth



Either Palo Alto gts AQ and Mt. View wins final at-large draw vs SI

1. Los Gatos 1971 7-3 29.5
2. St. Francis 1757 8-2 27.5
3. Oak Grove 1896 8-2 27.5
4. Leigh 1674 8-2 27
5. Serra 1758 5-5 22
6. Mitty 1727 5-5 21.5
7. Palo Alto 1985 4-6 20 (+2 for beating Wilcox, +2 projected over Mt. View)
8. Mountain View 1845 5-5 19 points (+2 for win over Saratoga, -2 projected loss to Palo Alto)

Or Palo wins AQ and SI wins draw for final at-large

1. Valley Christian 1512 10-0 32.5
2. Los Gatos 1971 7-3 29.5
3. St. Francis 1757 8-2 27.5
4. Oak Grove 1896 8-2 27.5
5. Leigh 1674 8-2 27
6. Serra 1758 5-5 22
7. Mitty 1727 5-5 21.5
8. Palo Alto 1985 4-6 20 (+2 for beating Wilcox, +2 projected over Mt. View)

Or Mt. View wins final AQ and SI is final at-large

1. Los Gatos 1971 7-3 29.5
2. St. Francis 1757 8-2 27.5
3. Oak Grove 1896 8-2 27.5
4. Leigh 1674 8-2 27
5. Serra 1758 5-5 22
6. Mitty 1727 5-5 21.5
7. Aragon 1521 6-4 21
8. Mountain View 1845 5-5 19 points (+2 for win over Saratoga, -2 projected loss to Palo Alto)

Division III –

Either

1. Valley Christian 1512 10-0 32.5
2. Palma 890 7-3 26.5
3. Live Oak 1096 8-2 26
4. Monta Vista Christian 900 7-3 23
5. Burlingame 1385 7-3 24.5
6. Saratoga 1305 5-5 21 (-2 for loss to Mt. View)
7. Aragon 1521 6-4 21
8. Sacred Heart Prep 615 3-7 18.5

Or

1. Palma 890 7-3 26.5
2. Live Oak 1096 8-2 26
3. Monta Vista Christian 900 7-3 23
4. Burlingame 1385 7-3 24.5
5. Saratoga 1305 5-5 21 (-2 for loss to Mt. View)
6. Aragon 1521 6-4 21
7. St. Ignatius 1467 4-6 19
8. Sacred Heart Prep 615 3-7 18.5


Or

1. Valley Christian 1512 10-0 32.5
2. Palma 890 7-3 26.5
3. Live Oak 1096 8-2 26
4. Monta Vista Christian 900 7-3 23
5. Burlingame 1385 7-3 24.5
6. Saratoga 1305 5-5 21 (-2 for loss to Mt. View)
7. Saint Ignatius 1467 4-6 19
8. Sacred Heart Prep 615 3-7 18.5


Non open Divisions

Based on this weeks results Silver Creek, Capuchino and Independence were projected into the field as at-large teams while Branham (who lost ot Silver Creek), King City (loss to Pacific Grove) and Woodside (loss to Kings Academy) were projected out.

One discovery here is that the AAA league does not finish play until a week after the CCS is done so it is unlikely that anyone will get league championship points from a AAA game as the league champion will not be determined by the end of the CCS season.

El Camino – Cupertino’s upset over Los Altos leaves them in contention to win the league’s automatic berth is they can also upset Homestead. Los Altos even with the loss will get an at-large if they win out with 20 points. Fremont also remains in contention with one league loss and would need to sweep Los Altos, Cupertino and Monta Vista to get to 18.5 points.

Mission Trail – Carmel’s expected win over Soledad leaves them as the leagues only undefeated team and they should coast to a league championship. Pacific Grove upset King City which makes it unlikely that King City will get an at-large berth and leaves Pacific Grove in the league’s race for an automatic berth. Soledad and Pacific Grove each have one loss and square off later this year for what will likely determine the league’s second automatic spot. The other major game of consequence will be Stevenson’s game with Soledad with Stevenson needing a win to get an at-large spot.

Pacific - No changes here as Seaside continues to move toward a league championship and Gilroy toward an at-large bid.

PAL Ocean – Half Moon Bay’s last minute win over Sequoia leaves them as the league’s only undefeated team and a win over either Kings Academy or South San Francisco in their last two league games will clinch the league’s automatic berth for HMB. Menlo rolled over SSF and only needs one win in their final three games (sequoia, Woodisde, SHP)where they will be a favorite to get an at-large berth. Kings Academy needs to win 2 of their last three games (HMB, Sequoia, Jefferson) to have a chance at an at-large berth. Sequoia needs to win all three remaining games (Menlo, Kings Academy, Carlmont) and Woodside would need two of three (SSF, Menlo, Menlo-Atherton) to have a chance.

PAL Lake – San Mateo only needs a win of either Mills or El Camino to take the league’s only automatic berth. Caupuchino at 7-3 will end up with 18.5 points which will put them on the bubble and as one of the last teams in the field based on this week’s projections.

Santa Cruz Coast League –No changes here. Next weeks’ San Lorenzo Valley at Scotts Valley game will likely determine the second automatic berth. If SLV losses it would be unlikely they will get an at-large berth with 18 points. If Scotts Valley losses they would likely be in position for an at-large spot with a projected 19.5 points.

Santa Teresa – Silver Creek had a big win over Branham and they are projected to win out and finish with 20.5 points and an at-large berth. Westmont continues to be the leagues only unbeaten team and plays Independence and Branham in the last two weeks who currently each have one league loss. Independence projects out to 6-4 and 18.5 points and based on these weeks projections would make the field as an at-large team. Branham 6-4 and 18 points (need to beat Westmont to make play-offs).

West Valley – No real changes here from last week. Gunderson still a big favorite to win the league but must still beat Del Mar (one league loss) and Overfelt (undefeated in league) to win the lone spot from this league.

Non Open Division I

1. Westmont 1541 9-1 24.5
2. Soledad 1431 7-3 21.5
3. Gilroy 1496 7-3 21
4. Silver Creek 2532 7-3 20.5
5. Homestead 2367 8-2 20.5
6. Los Altos 2200 8-2 20 (-2 for loss to Cupertino)
7. San Mateo 1682 7-3 18.5 (-1 for no point for Mission being projected AAA champion)
8. Independence 3104 6-4 18.5



Division II

1. Carmel 869 10-0 28
2. Half Moon Bay 997 10-0 27.5
3. Aptos 1411 8-2 26.5
4. Seaside 1054 9-1 25
5. Menlo 577 9-1 24 (-1 no point for Mission being projected AAA champion)
6. Gunderson 1146 9-1 21.5
7. Scotts Valley 841 7-3 21.5
8. Capuchino 1180 7-3 18.5


Bubble Teams:

Stevenson 498 7-2 18.41
Branham 1512 6-4 18 (-2 loss to Silver Creek)
San Lorenzo Valley 767 6-4 18 (19 if Cupertino upsets Homestead)
Sequoia 2113 5-5 18 (19 if Rancho Cotate upsets Cardinal Newman)
Woodside 1772 6-4 17.5 (-2 for loss to King’s Academy)
Kings Academy 6-4 577 17.5 (+2 points for win over Woodside)
King City 1019 5-5 17.5 (-2 for loss to Pacific Grove)
Pacific Grove 613 5-5 17

 

[paul_johnson884]

an Open division that does not attempt to place the top teams, regardless of enrollment, into the top bracket is goofy.

 

[FBAddict]

an Open division that does not attempt to place the top teams, regardless of enrollment, into the top bracket is goofy.

True - but since the CCS section has Three open divisions, enrollment is one of the ways to relegate teams to each division. Other methods include aligning teams through the 24 open slots by CCS powerpoints, win/loss records, third party ranking systems or by committee alignment.

 

[paul_johnson884]

True - but since the CCS section has Three open divisions, enrollment is one of the ways to relegate teams to each division. Other methods include aligning teams through the 24 open slots by CCS powerpoints, win/loss records, third party ranking systems or by committee alignment.

I understand why the CCS sets it up the way they do. Point is, it is is weak that they dont put the best in the top bracket.

 

[ncpfan]

Shouldn't Wilcox be listed at 4-6 instead of 5-5? I believe Calpreps has them rated below Milpitas and LG who are their final two games.

Also Burlingame is seeded below MVC in D3 even though they have more power points...is there a reason for that?

Just looking at the brackets, D1 looks the toughest with San Benito, Menlo-Atherton, Milpitas, and Bellarmine. Any of those 4 could win it.

Excellent work as always!

 

[ncpfan]

Also curious to see if VC ends up in D2, if Aptos would consider opting up. At 26.5 points, and no VC or WCAL, they would be tied with Palma for the 1 seed (I believe they would be the 2 seed because they lost head to head). They could make a run at the Open D3 title, and get a rematch with Palma to go to a regional game.

 

[carmelkyd]

What needs to happen to see VC moved up to D2?

 

[FBAddict]

What needs to happen to see VC moved up to D2?

This particular situation may cause CCS to reformat their playoff seeding rules to align teams according to PowerPoints instead of enrollment.
PalBooster outlined the potential variables for VC moving DII. Additionally Aptos opting in would move VC up as long as they supplanted a DI or DII team because of PowerPoints which I think they would.

 

[PAL Booster]

NCP fan - both your comments are correct - but for some reason I can't get back to edit the post - Burlingame should be seeded above MVC based on the projections and Wilcox's 21 points are correct but that assumes a 4-6 record (assumes San Benito and Valley Christian as league champs and Monterey Trail gets to seven wins.

As I have it currently projected - If Aptos opts up it would push Sacred Heart Prep with a projected 18.5 points down to the non-open divisions. This assumes SHP beats Terra Nova and Hillsdale but losses to Menlo. The next team to go down will likely be last at-large team (currently projected at 19 points as either Mountain View or St. Ignatius.

A lot of games left and this will get clearer as we get to week 10. One other factor for Aptos is that they lost their starting QB before the Scotts Valley game (I was surprised the Scotts Valley score 21-14 was so close). The Santa Cruz Sentinal reported he has a broken foot and he is out for 4-6 weeks. It is possible that Aptos' decision might be based on whether they will have their starting quarterback or not when the play-offs start.

 

[PAL Booster]

CCS 2016 Play-off Picture post Week 8


Two weeks to go and the number of scenarios begins to narrow. There were a few upsets in week 8 that primarily changed the seeding for the open division and changed some of the teams in the field for the non-open divisions

Open Division Leagues

DeAnza League – Wilcox upset Milpitas and faces off against Los Gatos this week for the league championship. Milpitas still figures to come in third and the final AQ spot will come down to the week 10 game between Mountain View (who survived against Santa Clara in overtime) and Palo Alto. Saratoga will wrap up an at-large spot if they beat Santa Clara next week. If Mountain View losses in week 10 they will finish with 19 points and be on the bubble for a final at-large berth.

Gabilan League – Slight upset in Monte Vista Christian beating Salinas. MVC will finish third in the league and Salinas needs to beat Alvarez next week to sew up the fourth and final automatic spot. If Alvarez wins their week 10 game against North Salinas they will be on the bubble for an at-large berth. If Elk Grove wins the Delta league outright Alvarez will have 19 points.


Mt. Hamilton – All favorites won here. The week 9 Santa Teresa vs Piedmont Hills game will determine who gets the fourth Automatic qualifying spot for the league. The loser will be an at-large team as Piedmont Hills already sits with 20.5 points and Santa Teresa with 21 points.

PAL-Bay – Menlo-Atherton and Burlingame have clinched two of the leagues four play-off spots. Menlo-Atherton wins the league championship outright with either a win over Hillsdale or a Burlingame lose to Aragon. The bottom four team all have one league win. Aragon will get one of the two remaining spots if they get a win against either Burlingame or Hillsdale. Likewise, if Hillsdale wins one of their last two games against Menlo-Atherton or Aragon they will get a play-off spot. If Aragon or Hillsdale lose their last two games then the winner of next week’s Sacred Heart Prep and Terra Nova game will get an automatic spot (the loser will be out).

If Aragon lost their last two games they would end up with 19 points and be on the bubble for an at-large berth.

WCAL – No changes here with Valley Christian, St. Francis and Serra clinching automatic berths. The winner of next weeks Bellarmine and Mitty game will determine fourth place and the final automatic berth. The loser will be an at-large team. This weeks game between Valley Christian and St. Francis will determine the league championship. A VC win will give them an outright title. A St. Francis win would result in either a co-championship or a tri-championship with Serra if they beat Bellarmine in week 10. St. Ignatius with a in next week over Sacred Heart Cathedral will be at 19 points and on the bubble for an-large berth. A Campolindo upset over Clayton Valley Charter in week 10 would give SI an extra point and insure an at-large berth.

At-Large Berths – there are four open at-large berths. The top three seem fairly secure (same is true if Santa Teresa beats Piedmont Hills as Piedmont Hills would be the at-large with 20.5 points. As of now the projections show Mountain View to be a slim favorite over Palo Alto which would give them an automatic spot and North Salinas is rated slightly ahead of Alvarez - which would give the final spot to SI, but these two games are essentially toss-ups. Also the outcome of the Delta League and Diablo Valley League will have an impact. Projections as of now.

1. Mitty 4-4 projected at 5-5 21.5 points (22.5 if Pittsburg wins their league)
2. Santa Teresa 6-2 projected at 6-4 21 points
3. Saratoga 4-4 projected at 5-5 20.5 points (lost 0.5 for HMB being projected as co-champion of Ocean league)
or
4. St. Ignatius 3-5 projected at 4-6 19 points (Could lose 0.5 points if Campolindo could gain an extra point if Campolindo wins their league) or
Mountain View 5-3 projected with week 10 loss at 5-5 19 points or
Alvarez 3-5 projected at 4-6 19 points (if Elk Grove is sole Delta League champion).

Projection of Open Play-off field - changes from last week noted in parentheses

Division I

1. San Benito 2899 10-0 33.5
2. Menlo-Atherton 2279 8-2 30
3. Milpitas 3149 8-2 26.5 (-2 loss to Wilcox)
4. Bellarmine 3200 7-3 25.5
5. Wilcox 1994 5-5 23 (+2 win over Milpitas)
6. Piedmont Hills 2208 6-4 22.5
7. Salinas 2675 5-5 21 (-2 loss to Monte Vista Christian)
8. Santa Teresa 2303 6-4 21

Division II

1. Los Gatos 1971 7-3 29.5
2. St. Francis 1757 8-2 27.5
3. Oak Grove 1896 8-2 27.5
4. Leigh 1674 8-2 27
5. Serra 1758 5-5 22
6. Mitty 1727 5-5 21.5
7. Aragon 1521 6-4 21
8. Mountain View 1845 6-4 21 (+2 projected over Palo Alto)

Division III

1. Valley Christian 1512 10-0 32.5
2. Palma 890 7-3 26.5
3. Live Oak 1096 8-2 26
4. Monte Vista Christian 900 8-2 25 (+2 win over Salinas)
5. Burlingame 1385 7-3 24 (-0.5 from HMB being projected as co-champ of Ocean)
6. Saratoga 1305 5-5 20.5 (-0.5 from HMB being projected as co-champ of Ocean)
7. Saint Ignatius 1467 4-6 19
8. Sacred Heart Prep 615 2-8 17 (-2 loss to Hillsdale, +0.5 for Menlo projected as Ocean co-champion)

Non open Divisions

El Camino – No changes here. Looks like week 10 game between Cupertino and Homestead will determine league championship. Los Altos will get an at-large with 20 points with wins in the last two weeks.

Mission Trail – This week’s game between Soledad and Pacific Grove will likely determine second place and an automatic play-off spot. If Soledad losses they would still be in good shape for an at-large bid projected out at 19.5 points. Carmel should cruise to a league championship and a 10-0 regular season. Stevenson with their loss to Soledad this week projects to win out an d finish the season at 6-3 and with 18.41 points which will put them on the bubble

Pacific - No changes here. A Seaside win in week 9 over Watsonville clinches the league’s automatic spot for Seaside. Gilroy is well positioned for an at-large berth by winning one of its final two games (they will be favored in both).

PAL Ocean – Kings Academy upset Half Moon Bay. After four games everyone in this league has a lose and everyone also has a win. League play wraps up in week 9 and both Menlo (vs Woodside) and Half Moon Bay (vs South San Francisco) will be favored to win and to end up as co-champions of the league. HMB would get the automatic berth due to their win over Menlo, but Menlo already has enough points to be an at-large team. With their win over HMB Kings Academy (6-2) figures to get an at-large berth with one win in its final two games (Sequoia and Jefferson). Woodside (5-3) needs to beat either Menlo or Menlo-Atherton in their final two games to capture an at-large berth. Sequoia (3-5) would need to beat Kings Academy and Carlmont and have Rancho Cotate upset Cardinal Newman to get to 19 points and a potential at-large berth.

PAL Lake – San Mateo clinched the leagues automatic berth with their win over El Camino and Mills loss to Jefferson. Capuchino’s at-large berth hopes took a hit as they stand to lose 0.5 points if Menlo and HMB end up as co-champions of the Ocean league.

Santa Cruz Coast League – Absent a huge San Lorenzo Valley upset over Aptos in week 10, this leagues race is over. With Scotts Valley’s win this week over San Lorenzo Valley they will finish second in league and get the final automatic berth. Aptos will win the league championship. San Lorenzo Valley projects to finish with 18 points which should leave them out of the play-offs.

Santa Teresa – This leagues race comes to the final two weeks with Westmont undefeated and Silver Creek, Independence and Branham each with one loss. Westmont (7-1) and already has accumulated 19.5 points. Silver Creek (5-3) is also favored to win out and will finish with 18.5 points with one win and 20.5 with two wins. Independence (6-2) is projected with 18.5 points even if they lose their final two games, but they are at-risk of losing of only having 17.5 points if Gunderson does not win their league championship. Branham (5-3) projects to be at 18 points with one more win and 20 points with two wins. Branham can gain another point if Cupertino wins their league.

West Valley – The league championship will be determined in week 10 between Gunderson and Overfelt. If Gunderson beats Del Mar but losses to Overfelt they would have a good chance at an-large bid with 19 points.


Non Open Division I

1. Westmont 1541 9-1 24.5
2. Soledad 1431 7-3 21.5
3. Gilroy 1496 7-3 21
4. Silver Creek 2532 7-3 20.5
5. Homestead 2367 8-2 20.5
6. Los Altos 2200 8-2 20
7. San Mateo 1682 7-3 18.5
8. Independence 3104 6-4 18.5

Division II

1. Carmel 869 10-0 28
2. Aptos 1411 8-2 26.5
3. Half Moon Bay 997 9-1 25 (-2 loss to Kings Academy, -0.5 for being league co-champion)
4. Seaside 1054 9-1 25
5. Menlo 577 9-1 24.5 (+0.5 for being league co-champion)
6. Gunderson 1146 9-1 21.5
7. Scotts Valley 841 7-3 21.5
8. Kings Academy 8-2 21.5 (+2 for beating HMB, +2 projected win over Sequoia)

Bubble Teams:
Stevenson 498 7-2 18.41
Capuchino 1180 7-3 18.0 (-0.5 for HMB being league co-champion)
Branham 1512 6-4 18 (+1 if Cupertino upsets Homestead)
San Lorenzo Valley 767 6-4 18 (+1 if Cupertino upsets Homestead)
Woodside 1772 5-5 17.5
King City 1019 5-5 17.5
Pacific Grove 613 5-5 17
Sequoia 2113 4-6 16 (+1 if Rancho Cotate upsets Cardinal Newman)

 

[PAL Booster]

What needs to happen to see VC moved up to D2?

Opt-ups – It looks highly likely that the two teams with an ability to opt into the open will be Aptos (projected 8-2) and Carmel (projected 10-0). Aptos is currently playing without their starting QB and it is unknown if he will return for the play-offs. In the event that one team opts up it is likely that Sacred Heart Prep (or Terra Nova or Hillsdale if they were to replace SHP as the Bay automatic qualifier) would be the team pushed down into the non-open division. If both teams opt up the second team to be pushed down under the current scenario would be SI.


The net-net of this is that it looks almost certain that Valley Christian will be in DIII this year. The only scenarios I see that push VC into DII are where Palo Alto is an AQ and gets pushed down with an opt up and/or Hillsdale replaces Aragon in the field and goes into DIII and pushes VC up to DII.

 

[carmelkyd]

John Devine from Monterey Herald tweeted a picture of Carmel's Covassy Windam in street clothes on the sideline after injuring his leg early in the King City game.

 

[farmair3]

Just curious. Is the number after the school name on these lists enrollment???

 

[paul s]

Why would Kings Academy lose 0.5 For the castlemont Game?Why would Castlemont be declared a C Team. How is this determined?

 

[FBAddict]

Just curious. Is the number after the school name on these lists enrollment???

Yes

 

[PAL Booster]

Why would Kings Academy lose 0.5 For the castlemont Game?Why would Castlemont be declared a C Team. How is this determined?

If a CCS team plays a team out of section - they are a C team with 0 points if they have less than four wins; a B team if they win 4-6 games and an A team if they win 7 games or more. At least according to Calpreps Castlemont's game with Oakland High was originally recorded as a tie which was odd as I didn't think ties were permitted any more. Castlemont is not favored to win its final two games and would have finished 3-6-1. I see Calpreps has now listed the game as a win for Castelmont and they now have four wins and will be a B team.

 

[RJ2015]

Question, is it possible for an Open qualifier team (either AQ or At-Large) to opt out of participating in Open and instead participate in Non-Open? For example, what if Santa Teresa wanted to opt out of Open. I have no reason to pick Santa Teresa other than they are a lower seed in D1