How did NorCal's Top Teams end the season?

[Rmbr26]

There are different sources for polls and rankings of sorts so for this post I'll stick to CalPreps to keep it conistent. Whether or not you like CalPreps it is based soely on statistics as to scores, opponents win/loss records and overall win/loss records in regards to "strength of schedule" and doesn;t seem to be any human bias involved. I'll take a look at 4 teams: DLS, Folsom, Serra, St. Francis. As to the outcome of the state open there were no surprises as MD overwhelmed Serra by 44-7 which is not far off from the CalPreps projected score of 48-0. MD was as talented as advertised and Serra did not help its cause with 3 turnovers incl a pick-6 and being stopped at the 1-yard line of MD at end of first 1/2. The Padres did score however regardless proving those who predicted they would not cross mid-field or score any points incorrect. See if you agree or disagree with the computer generated results below.

Final CA State Rankings:
#10 - Serra 11-2
#14 - DLS 10-3
#15 - St. Francis 11-1
#18 - Folsom 11-4

Final Season Games:
Serra loses to MD 44-7 [projected winner MD 48-0]
DLS loses to Folsom 28-27 [projected winner DLS 34-21]
St. Francis loses to Serra 16-12 [projected winner SF 34-24]
Folsom loses to Cathedral Catholic 33-21 [projected winner CC 40-31]

Mater Dei point differential in wins over top 100 ranked teams:
#2 Servite 27-7 = +20
#2 Servite 46-37 = +9
#3 Centennial Corona 21-16 = +5
#4 St. John Bosco 42-21 = +21
#6 Duncanville, Tx 45-3 = +42
#23 Lutheran - Orange 55-16 = +39
#39 Santa Margarita 56-3 = +53
#40 Serra 44-7 = +37
#47 Norco 49-14 = +35

Computer Projections of DLS, SF and Folsom vs Mater Dei:
Mater Dei 49-7 over DLS [+42]
Mater Dei 49-6 over SF [+43]
Mater Dei 46-3 over Folsom [+43]

Conclusion: It was obvious prior to the Open game and the final score proved the projection highly accurate. There was no top NorCal team that was going to be highly competitive with the #1 ranked MD powerhouse. Whether DLS, SF or Folsom could have fared better than Serra is open to discussion, however looking at the data that would be highly questionable [or not?]...

 

[Streak One]

Looking at the projections lines up with what I have thought. Based on the end of the year, those four top teams are very similar. I understand some of their styles do better against each other and others and there are some head-to-heads, but overall, the top four in NorCal this year is more bunched that past seasons

Thanks for posting this. Was fun to look at the data

 

[colhenrylives]

El Rambo does his homework. So let us ask him right now: What are his early views on the 2022 WCAL competition? Will it be the usual suspects at the top once more or will Bellarmine challenge for the title? And what about new state bowl champion SHC? Although the Irish have never really come close to grabbing a WCAL varsity football title in their long history, surely some positive momentum has been generated by their excellent post-season work this year. And what about Riordan? Its advocates keep hoping for a big turnaround but, so far, it hasn't happened. Is 2022 the year for the Crusaders? Lots of questions. Few answers. We rely on the Rambling Individual for help.