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Who will be the 2022 NorCal Open Team?

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bulldogmgc

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Current picture points to Serra out of San Mateo, as it strongly appears there may be not much challenge the rest of the way including playoffs for them to stumble. Or does an undefeated Salinas or Wilcox have a chance in the CCS playoffs?

Any thoughts of an undefeated Clovis West?

Or an undefeated Del Oro team upsetting Folsom in league and again in SJS-D1 section playoffs?

We will find out this Friday if undefeated St. Mary’s-Stockton is indeed over-rated when they face off against DLS at home. Win or lose they will more than likely land a top 4 seed in the SJS-D1 playoffs. But, an anticipated loss vs DLS will certainly eliminate them from consideration. In addition, the SJS-D1 section gauntlet will be a huge challenge should they enter the playoffs undefeated. I do not see much challenge remaining in league but a rivalry game vs Lincoln-Stockton, even if Lincoln is not that strong this year, could result in an unpredictable result … NOT! The streak will continue vs the Trojans of Stockton! In any case, should St. Mary’s-Stockton hypothetically go undefeated and win SJS-D1 section, I can still envision Serra representing NorCal due to true size of their respective programs and overall SOS. Yes, St. Mary’s will face a couple of strong teams in the playoffs, but outside of these teams, the Rams league is much much weaker than WCAL and the teams faced during pre-league are lesser strength (outside common opponents DLS and CC).

Any undefeated NCS teams remaining that can pose a challenge for the Open spot? Wouldn’t they need to go thru DLS during section playoffs?

Undefeated Manteca will not get a chance to be considered, unless they could be miraculously launched from D3 to D1 in the SJS playoffs. That’s not going to happen. Despite having a talented team this year, their SOS will do them in.

Any other NorCal teams in the picture? Thoughts?

There is still a lot of football left, especially with the playoffs. The picture will get clearer and clearer. But, my money is on Serra being the chosen one this year unless they shoot themselves in the foot. And if that happens, it could get quite interesting, and more chatter from Pasty will get louder and louder! 😂
 
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pastyfastquick3 said:
I thought you learned your lesson on the @larrylegend kool aid?

He's hoping for a Folsom loss so bad, he thinks he can think it into existence.

Folsom will NOT lose to Del Oro.
Click to expand...
If it is of any consolation, I am picking Folsom to run the table in SFL league play. No more Larry Legend Koolaid for me! Happy?

P.S. I do hope my overrated young Rams will have the opportunity to face Folsom in the playoffs. We may not be victorious but we will get a better perspective of what we will bring to the table next year when this young Rams team will be expected to do more (similar to 2015 shootout with young Rams at Folsom losing 49-56, only to return and take care of business in 2016 beating Folsom for the section championship, 56-25). That 2016 Rams team was pretty special. Anticipate the same for 2023. Now this koolaid tastes pretty good! 😂
 
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bulldogmgc said:
If it is of any consolation, I am picking Folsom to run the table in SFL league play. No more Larry Legend Koolaid for me! Happy?

P.S. I do hope my overrated young Rams will have the opportunity to face Folsom in the playoffs. We may not be victorious but we will get a better perspective of what we will bring to the table next year when this young Rams team will be expected to do more (similar to 2015 shootout with young Rams at Folsom losing 49-56, only to return and take care of business in 2016 beating Folsom for the section championship, 56-25). That 2016 Rams team was pretty special. Anticipate the same for 2023. Now this koolaid tastes pretty good! 😂
Click to expand...
Folsom isn't losing in the SFL or the SJS. Long shot at best.

Rams will have a shot for sure in the playoffs.
 
It is wide open who the Top Dog will become week 11. It is Serra's to lose if they win out, they will be Open Team selection. A Serra loss in league could open door for Folsom, if they can defeat Del Oro in SFL showdown. Folsom will be tested in SJS D1 playoffs but is the Favorite. It is nice to see top programs play each other in season and perhaps a second chance to defeat the team that defeated them. Can St. Mary's maintain momentum and not lose an upset in the Tri-City? Propelling potential matchup with Central Catholic D1 SJS playoffs (not counting them out yet). DLS with two losses would need Folsom/Serra to lose in playoffs if they can defeat Rams this week to be back in discussion. St. Mary's defeats DLS and remains unbeaten through D1 SJS, then they would have a great argument to be TOP Dog in NorCal. If Del Oro defeats Folsom and wins D1, then they also would have a chance. Even though Folsom lost to Serra, so most would give edge back to Serra.
 
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M.C. fan said:
It is wide open who the Top Dog will become week 11. It is Serra's to lose if they win out, they will be Open Team selection. A Serra loss in league could open door for Folsom, if they can defeat Del Oro in SFL showdown. Folsom will be tested in SJS D1 playoffs but is the Favorite. It is nice to see top programs play each other in season and perhaps a second chance to defeat the team that defeated them. Can St. Mary's maintain momentum and not lose an upset in the Tri-City? Propelling potential matchup with Central Catholic D1 SJS playoffs (not counting them out yet). DLS with two losses would need Folsom/Serra to lose in playoffs if they can defeat Rams this week to be back in discussion. St. Mary's defeats DLS and remains unbeaten through D1 SJS, then they would have a great argument to be TOP Dog in NorCal. If Del Oro defeats Folsom and wins D1, then they also would have a chance. Even though Folsom lost to Serra, so most would give edge back to Serra.
Click to expand...
Despite the loss, I still think Folsom is better than Serra.

With that said, if they run the table they deserve the OPEN slot.
 
bulldogmgc said:
Current picture points to Serra out of San Mateo, as it strongly appears there may be not much challenge the rest of the way including playoffs for them to stumble. Or does an undefeated Salinas or Wilcox have a chance in the CCS playoffs?

Any thoughts of an undefeated Clovis West?

Or an undefeated Del Oro team upsetting Folsom in league and again in SJS-D1 section playoffs?

We will find out this Friday if undefeated St. Mary’s-Stockton is indeed over-rated when they face off against DLS at home. Win or lose they will more than likely land a top 4 seed in the SJS-D1 playoffs. But, an anticipated loss vs DLS will certainly eliminate them from consideration. In addition, the SJS-D1 section gauntlet will be a huge challenge should they enter the playoffs undefeated. I do not see much challenge remaining in league but a rivalry game vs Lincoln-Stockton, even if Lincoln is not that strong this year, could result in an unpredictable result … NOT! The streak will continue vs the Trojans of Stockton! In any case, should St. Mary’s-Stockton hypothetically go undefeated and win SJS-D1 section, I can still envision Serra representing NorCal due to true size of their respective programs and overall SOS. Yes, St. Mary’s will face a couple of strong teams in the playoffs, but outside of these teams, the Rams league is much much weaker than WCAL and the teams faced during pre-league are lesser strength (outside common opponents DLS and CC).

Any undefeated NCS teams remaining that can pose a challenge for the Open spot? Wouldn’t they need to go thru DLS during section playoffs?

Undefeated Manteca will not get a chance to be considered, unless they could be miraculously launched from D3 to D1 in the SJS playoffs. That’s not going to happen. Despite having a talented team this year, their SOS will do them in.

Any other NorCal teams in the picture? Thoughts?

There is still a lot of football left, especially with the playoffs. The picture will get clearer and clearer. But, my money is on Serra being the chosen one this year unless they shoot themselves in the foot. And if that happens, it could get quite interesting, and more chatter from Pasty will get louder and louder! 😂
Click to expand...
While Serra is the front-runner, St. Mary's may be the only reasonable alternative to an undefeated Padre team, provided the Rams beat both DLS and Folsom. At that point, it is conceivable that the committee may consider the SJS D-I playoffs more competitive than CCS D-I. Del Oro beating Folsom only, probably won't be enough. Cal-Hi will almost certainly keep Serra ahead of an undefeated Rams team, but Calpreps would probably give it to St. Mary's because of SoS. That said, it's still possible that the Padres will have to go through two undefeated teams for the CCS title.

No one will challenge Serra in WCAL play at all, in my opinion, nor do I think Wilcox seriously can in the playoffs because of their style of play. Salinas, because they are a passing team with D-I receivers, has a puncher's chance. I think the Cowboys have the most explosive offense in the CCS, and that includes considerations for Serra. It's defense where the Padres have a significant advantage. In a low-scoring game, Serra has a big advantage, but in a shootout, just about anything can happen because Salinas can score from just about anywhere on the field. (Full disclosure, I'm a Salinas alum.)

Now, if (and it remains a pretty big if) Salinas does manage a huge upset over Serra, I think it could get really interesting. While the Cowboys tried to schedule up this year in non-league play, those teams have not been as strong as hoped (CVC may be turning things around, though). Any number of SJS teams would all have a strength of schedule advantage. As much as it drives me crazy, the selection committee seems to change their point of emphasis from year to year. Do they stick with common opponent or do they move towards SoS?

DLS pretty much has no shot because whoever wins either the SJS or CCS D-I titles automatically has an advantage over the Spartans unless both Folsom and Serra lose early in the playoffs to the team that doesn't win the title. That's just really unlikely. I'm not even really completely convinced they'll beat Pitt in the NCS Open title game. The Pirates would need for Serra to lose and Folsom to lose to a team that does not win the SJS title.

Clovis West going undefeated could possibly propel them into the D-1AA game, but not the Open. They didn't really challenge themselves in non-league play very much and the Central Section overall is down. If catastrophe hits both the SJS and CCS, I can see them getting possible consideration over DLS, but maybe not Pitt.
 
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M.C. fan said:
It is wide open who the Top Dog will become week 11. It is Serra's to lose if they win out, they will be Open Team selection. A Serra loss in league could open door for Folsom, if they can defeat Del Oro in SFL showdown. Folsom will be tested in SJS D1 playoffs but is the Favorite. It is nice to see top programs play each other in season and perhaps a second chance to defeat the team that defeated them. Can St. Mary's maintain momentum and not lose an upset in the Tri-City? Propelling potential matchup with Central Catholic D1 SJS playoffs (not counting them out yet). DLS with two losses would need Folsom/Serra to lose in playoffs if they can defeat Rams this week to be back in discussion. St. Mary's defeats DLS and remains unbeaten through D1 SJS, then they would have a great argument to be TOP Dog in NorCal. If Del Oro defeats Folsom and wins D1, then they also would have a chance. Even though Folsom lost to Serra, so most would give edge back to Serra.
Click to expand...
Ah, yes! I was wondering about the mumbling I heard of Central Catholic participating in D1 for playoffs. Makes more sense why they scheduled a such a strong pre-league season against many strong D1 teams, stronger than St. Mary’s. Your confirmation here plus this article from the Modesto Bee: https://amp.modbee.com/sports/high-school/prep-football/article260242775.html solidifies this direction. Central Catholic will definitely be a team to watch in SJS D-1. Should Central Catholic make some noise and win SJS-D1 section by surprise (miracles do happen), they will not get chosen as the NorCal Open rep. But, such a miracle “could” potentially throw Manteca into the conversation, should Manteca go undefeated in league (win over CC) and in SJS-D2 playoffs having beaten the SJS-D1 champion earlier in league play. Again, HUGE longshot, but doors are not closed, especially if Serra stumbles. Just another thought to consider. Still lots of football left. 😉

I know I know Pasty, Folsom is NOT going to lose. That’s exactly what I and the Grant fans were saying in 2009. 😉 😂😂😂

BTW Pasty, before you misinterpret my statement above, I’m not saying Folsom will LOSE. All I am saying is I learned to keep my mouth shut in anointing my team as the winner, whether in a game or any future games. Well, except vs Lincoln-Stockton … we own the Trojans of Stockton (not the Spanos family) 😂. You will notice I did not project St. Mary’s beating Central Catholic (although I selected them as my 1-pointer … rule #1 never pick against your own team) and I will do the same vs DLS this week. Likewise, any major showdowns in the playoffs. Doesn’t mean I don’t have confidence in my team. It’s just a quiet humble confidence that I prefer be spoken on the field vs any chat room. Well, again, except vs Lincoln-Stockton. 😂
 
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It is easier to say who is not likely to be there among the small circle of normal candidates.
DLS is out
Folsom is low on the possibility list.
Pittsburg is out.

Most likely candidate - Serra; a loss opens the door for Folsom but more likely for whomever beats Serra especially in the playoffs, namely an undefeated Salinas or Wilcox.

The general list of possible candidates as of today with Calpreps prediction of undefeated regular season:
Clovis West 86%
Salinas 80%
Wilcox 36%
St. Mary's 13%
Half Moon Bay 8%
Del Oro 1%

San Ramon Valley 58% (possible NCS D-Open)
Marin Catholic 95% (NCS Not NCS D-Open probably is a long shot)
Manteca 96% (They are SJS, D2 right, that's a long shot for them for Open)
 
bulldogmgc said:
Ah, yes! I was wondering about the mumbling I heard of Central Catholic participating in D1 for playoffs. Makes more sense why they scheduled a such a strong pre-league season against many strong D1 teams, stronger than St. Mary’s. Your confirmation here plus this article from the Modesto Bee: https://amp.modbee.com/sports/high-school/prep-football/article260242775.html solidifies this direction. Central Catholic will definitely be a team to watch in SJS D-1. Should Central Catholic make some noise and win SJS-D1 section by surprise (miracles do happen), they will not get chosen as the NorCal Open rep. But, such a miracle “could” potentially throw Manteca into the conversation, should Manteca go undefeated in league (win over CC) and in SJS-D2 playoffs having beaten the SJS-D1 champion earlier in league play. Again, HUGE longshot, but doors are not closed, especially if Serra stumbles. Just another thought to consider. Still lots of football left. 😉

I know I know Pasty, Folsom is NOT going to lose. That’s exactly what I and the Grant fans were saying in 2009. 😉 😂😂😂
Click to expand...
Bulldog I was a tad early on presenting to the forum what I felt was a dam good team. St. Mary's really made me ask my friends at Central wtf? lol. Central Valley (Stockton, Lodi, Manteca, Tracy, Modesto, Turlock, and Merced have close to 2 million people. Out pacing in population growth of the Bay, Sacramento and Most parts of California. Watch out for developing programs like Manteca and Tracy schools as they are booming with growth.
 
M.C. fan said:
Serra has to lose. Folsom cannot catapult ahead of a team that they lost to.
Click to expand...
I read his statement as "With that said, if they (Serra) run the table they deserve the OPEN slot."

Grammatically, it is a somewhat unclear antecedent, but that seemed to be what it said to me.
 
MTsince2004 said:
I read his statement as "With that said, if they (Serra) run the table they deserve the OPEN slot."

Grammatically, it is a somewhat unclear antecedent, but that seemed to be what it said to me.
Click to expand...
Interesting, compelling and thank you for your input! Peace
 
M.C. fan said:
Serra has to lose. Folsom cannot catapult ahead of a team that they lost to.
Click to expand...
It will depend on when/whom Serra loses to. If Serra loses a WCAL game but wins out and takes the Section championship, they would still be picked over Folsom because they beat them. If Serra loses in the playoffs, Folsom would be the front-runner.
 
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bulldogmgc said:
Current picture points to Serra out of San Mateo, as it strongly appears there may be not much challenge the rest of the way including playoffs for them to stumble. Or does an undefeated Salinas or Wilcox have a chance in the CCS playoffs?

Any thoughts of an undefeated Clovis West?

Or an undefeated Del Oro team upsetting Folsom in league and again in SJS-D1 section playoffs?

We will find out this Friday if undefeated St. Mary’s-Stockton is indeed over-rated when they face off against DLS at home. Win or lose they will more than likely land a top 4 seed in the SJS-D1 playoffs. But, an anticipated loss vs DLS will certainly eliminate them from consideration. In addition, the SJS-D1 section gauntlet will be a huge challenge should they enter the playoffs undefeated. I do not see much challenge remaining in league but a rivalry game vs Lincoln-Stockton, even if Lincoln is not that strong this year, could result in an unpredictable result … NOT! The streak will continue vs the Trojans of Stockton! In any case, should St. Mary’s-Stockton hypothetically go undefeated and win SJS-D1 section, I can still envision Serra representing NorCal due to true size of their respective programs and overall SOS. Yes, St. Mary’s will face a couple of strong teams in the playoffs, but outside of these teams, the Rams league is much much weaker than WCAL and the teams faced during pre-league are lesser strength (outside common opponents DLS and CC).

Any undefeated NCS teams remaining that can pose a challenge for the Open spot? Wouldn’t they need to go thru DLS during section playoffs?

Undefeated Manteca will not get a chance to be considered, unless they could be miraculously launched from D3 to D1 in the SJS playoffs. That’s not going to happen. Despite having a talented team this year, their SOS will do them in.

Any other NorCal teams in the picture? Thoughts?

There is still a lot of football left, especially with the playoffs. The picture will get clearer and clearer. But, my money is on Serra being the chosen one this year unless they shoot themselves in the foot. And if that happens, it could get quite interesting, and more chatter from Pasty will get louder and louder! 😂
Click to expand...
Manteca has been D2 when it came to the NorCal regionals, at least that's where they were.
 
At this point, sure, it's Serra. But there's a long way to go. We're talking about teen boys. Strange things tend to happen in prep football. A key injury here, a huge turnover at a critical moment, etc. You get the picture. Serra is far from a lock.
 
joebl said:
It will depend on when/whom Serra loses to. If Serra loses a WCAL game but wins out and takes the Section championship, they would still be picked over Folsom because they beat them. If Serra loses in the playoffs, Folsom would be the front-runner.
Click to expand...

Maybe so, in HS, but we’ve seen the scenario you outlined above not play out the same for determining CFP participants.

Some choose to look at it as which team suffered the worst loss. For example, Folsom barely losing to Serra early in the season could be seen by some as a much better loss than Serra losing to a team with 3 or 4 losses late in the season.

Off the top of my head, I can’t recall whether we have an example of the above occurring during the short history of the CA Bowl system, I’m just saying it’s possible for a head2head result to be nullified or balanced out by a bad loss.
 
PhotoGuy_271 said:
Manteca has been D2 when it came to the NorCal regionals, at least that's where they were.
Click to expand...

It doesn’t matter what division they are according to enrollment. The committee can select any team they choose if they deem them the best team.

In Manteca’s case we all know that’s not going to happen, but theoretically they could be selected for OPEN.
 
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FBAddict said:
It is easier to say who is not likely to be there among the small circle of normal candidates.
DLS is out
Folsom is low on the possibility list.
Pittsburg is out.

Most likely candidate - Serra; a loss opens the door for Folsom but more likely for whomever beats Serra especially in the playoffs, namely an undefeated Salinas or Wilcox.

The general list of possible candidates as of today with Calpreps prediction of undefeated regular season:
Clovis West 86%
Salinas 80%
Wilcox 36%
St. Mary's 13%
Half Moon Bay 8%
Del Oro 1%

San Ramon Valley 58% (possible NCS D-Open)
Marin Catholic 95% (NCS Not NCS D-Open probably is a long shot)
Manteca 96% (They are SJS, D2 right, that's a long shot for them for Open)
Click to expand...
Salinas going 13-0 would be equal parts exhilarating and horrifying.
 
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I say give a certain poster what they want. Folsom should go if they win out. Compare their recruiting abilities with southern California. See where they need work?
 
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Rocknrolus 95361 said:
I say give a certain poster what they want. Folsom should go if they win out. Compare their recruiting abilities with southern California. See where they need work?
Click to expand...
Your record and reputation are your best recruiting tool.

"If you build it, he will come......."- Field of Dreams
 
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To be honest, what's the value of being chosen to play in the Open? To tell your grandkids you played MD or SJB? You could form a SFL allstar team and still get beat by 40, or combine Folsom, DLS and Serra and lose by 40. The game this friday between MD and SJB has 70 FBS recruits........ there is not 70 recruits in all of nor-cal.
 
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pantera-cat said:
To be honest, what's the value of being chosen to play in the Open? To tell your grandkids you played MD or SJB? You could form a SFL allstar team and still get beat by 40, or combine Folsom, DLS and Serra and lose by 40. The game this friday between MD and SJB has 70 FBS recruits........ there is not 70 recruits in all of nor-cal.
Click to expand...
I think a DLS/Folsom/Serra/OR/GB/Del Oro team would be pretty good! :)
 
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bulldogmgc said:
That’s really nice of you! Thank you! It’s such an honor for the young, slow, overrated Rams from little ole Stockton to just be considered in this grouping. Truly honored. 😉
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I was talking about Oak Ridge. AKA- "SlowRidge HS"
 
An undefeated Serra will still be NorCals Open rep despite St. Mary’s having a more convincing win vs DLS, due to SOS. And that’s okay!

Heck, a SFL league champ (Folsom or Del Oro) may still be the #1 seed for the SJS D1 section playoffs due to SOS. St. Mary’s will be no worst than #2 seed, finishing undefeated. And that’s okay, too!

In any case, St. Mary’s being #1 or #2 in SJS D1 secures home field throughout the playoffs, and IMHO, will be the favorite.

Imagine if Del Oro pulls off the upset and beats Folsom in SFL league, I picture Del Oro being #1 seed in SJS D1 (not D2 since they win D1 league) and Folsom dropping to #3 seed (MT to #4 seed) and visiting Stockton to face St. Mary’s in the semifinals. Del Oro would host MT. Folsom wins SFL league, Del Oro drops to D2 for playoffs and St. Mary’s host MT in the semifinals before facing Folsom (neutral field) in the SJS D1 section championship.

Again, Serra still is our NorCal Open rep. However, if Serra stumbles, the SJS D1 champion is slated as NorCal Open rep (doubtful). I do not see Serra stumbling. I do not see their SOS dropping either.

Currently, after St. Mary’s beating DLS (more convincingly), St. Mary’s is ranked below both Serra and Folsom per Calpreps: http://calpreps.com/2022/ratings/California_all.htm and that’s alright!

GO RAMS!!!
 
Unfortunately, with calpreps good losses can bump you up more than good wins. Either way, great win for St Mary’s !!
 
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You are right. If Folsom and St. Mary's win out, they are #1 and #2. It doesn't matter much which is which, but Folsom would be the defending champ with a better Cal Preps rating and a much stronger strength of schedule.

It's down in the #3-#5 spots that it gets trickier. MT will now suffer the uncontrollable decline of the Cal Preps rating because of league opponents. The fact that there are league opponents and teams with open dates who decline to play MT only exacerbates the problem. Oak Ridge can lose a close game to Del Oro or Rocklin in the upcoming weeks and still gain Cal Preps rating points relative to Monterey Trail. Jesuit has an outside chance to push past MT, as well. There is a Cal Preps advantage to being a good team in a good league, whether you win it or not.

It will all shake out and the Section will do what the Section does. Right now, it's all just message board fodder.
 
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MTsince2004 said:
You are right. If Folsom and St. Mary's win out, they are #1 and #2. It doesn't matter much which is which, but Folsom would be the defending champ with a better record and Cal Preps rating.

It's down in the #3-#5 spots that it gets trickier. MT will now suffer the uncontrollable decline of the Cal Preps rating because of league opponents. The fact that there are league opponents and teams with open dates who decline to play MT only exacerbates the problem. Oak Ridge can lose a close game to Del Oro or Rocklin in the upcoming weeks and still gain Cal Preps rating points relative to Monterey Trail. Jesuit has an outside chance to push past MT, as well. There is a Cal Preps advantage to being a good team in a good league, whether you win it or not.

It will all shake out and the Section will do what the Section does. Right now, it's all just message board fodder.
Click to expand...
D1 pole position appears to be adding lanes to NorCal finale. CCS/NCS/SJS are all still available through league and playoff wins. Week 9 and the front runners (Serra,Folsom,St.Mary's,Salinas) have to drive through rivalry roads to grab the flag. Fuel up!!
 
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M.C. fan said:
D1 pole position appears to be adding lanes to NorCal finale. CCS/NCS/SJS are all still available through league and playoff wins. Week 9 and the front runners (Serra,Folsom,St.Mary's,Salinas) have to drive through rivalry roads to grab the flag. Fuel up!!
Click to expand...
Yes, I was only discussing SJS D1. However, you are right that there are a lot of games to be played that could really shake up the Nor Cal Open landscape.
 
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